Most US flat steel prices continued their upward trend this week, even as many spot market players remain tentative ahead of the Aug. 1 start of country-specific “reciprocal” trade tariffs that are slated to begin at the end of next week, market insiders told SteelOrbis.
Following on recent US mill price increases -largely the result of a recent doubling of import tariffs from 25 percent to 50 percent- market insiders told SteelOrbis many remain concerned that recently announced 30-35 percent import tariffs on two of the US’ largest trading partners, Canada and Mexico, could cause further spikes in US steel prices, along with a potential rise in US inflation levels once the effects of tariffs begin to take hold. Insiders said it remains unclear how much of the anticipated tariff-related increases, steel suppliers will be willing to absorb, given already low operating profits and margins.
This week, the SteelOrbis spot average price for hot-rolled coils is assessed another $10/nt higher at $870/nt, ($959/mt), or $43.50/cwt., up from $860/nt ($948/mt), or $43.00/cwt., one week earlier.
In other flat steel markets, spot CRC is reported on average up $10/nt following this past week’s $15/nt increase to on average $1,075/nt, ($1,185/mt), or $53.75/cwt., up from $1,065/nt ($1,174/mt), or $53.25/cwt., one week earlier. Given rising HRC pricing and higher CRC weekly values, the weekly key price spread between the two steel grades stands unchanged at $205/nt, or $10.25/cwt., up from $200/nt ($220/mt), or $10/cwt., two weeks earlier.
In the coated steel markets, spot HDG grade steel is discussed in thin trade a bit lower at $1,010/nt, ($1,113/mt), or $50.50/cwt., off from $1,000-1,040/nt ($1,102-1,146/mt), or on average $1,020/nt, a week ago.
On the mill side, key US steel maker Nucor reduced its Consumer Spot Price (CSP) for HRC to $900/nt ($992/mt), off from $910/nt ($1,003), or $45.50/cwt., a price it held for three previous weeks. The CRU HRC index was fairly stable, rising just $1/nt to $868/nt ($956/mt)nt from one week prior.
“ Markets are still pretty stagnant as summer months meander along,” one flat steel contact remarked in reaction to the new CRU HRC pricing data.
Some market insiders said the ongoing outlook for sideways to higher August scrap pricing remains supportive for flat and long steel markets near term. Others are not so sure.
“We see scrap for August at sideways, though (some suppliers) are going to try to push it up on speculation of tariff implications,” remarked one Midwest scrap insider. “Basic supply and demand fundamentals in the domestic market suggest sideways in my opinion.” He added, “Plus, we’re coming up on mill maintenance season, and those closures will taper some demand as well once it starts to get cool outside a little in the September-October time frame.”
Insiders cautioned again this week that potential 50 percent tariffs on Brazilian pig iron exports to the US could cause a boost in August scrap values, specifically for shredded and prime scrap grades as mills might have to scramble to purchase more scrap next month. It remains unclear at this time whether US president Trump will follow through on his Brazilian tariff threat, especially since he has used the threat of higher tariffs as a negotiating tool in the past. The US imports about 100,000 tons of pig iron each month from Brazil for US steel production.
Since Jan. 1, SteelOrbis historical pricing data indicates that spot HRC prices are up more than 24 percent. In the week following the February 10, 2025 announcement by the Trump administration of the resumption of Section 232 steel tariffs alone, spot prices rose a full 13.2 percent, SteelOrbis data shows.