Spot market prices for US domestic HRC, CRC, and HDG coil have continued to firm since our last report a week ago. Current spot market prices for US domestic HRC are up by $2.00 cwt. ($44/mt or $40/nt), week-over-week, and are now being heard at roughly $35-$37 cwt. ($772-$816/mt or $700-$740/nt), FOB mill.
CRC prices, on the other hand, are up by $1.00 cwt. ($22/mt or $20/nt) on the bottom end, and are now trending at $45.50-$47.50 cwt. ($1,003-$1,047/mt or $910-$950/nt), FOB mill.
HDG prices are stable at $46-$49 cwt. ($1,014-$1,080/mt or $920-$980/nt), FOB mill.
Lead times for these products for these products are hovering at 4-5 weeks for HRC and 5-6 weeks for CRC and HDG coil.
However, sources have been quick to point out that despite upticks in prices, lead times “aren’t going gangbusters” and order activity is “still far from great.” Mills’ capacity utilization rates are also still low.
Earlier this week, data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) noted that for week ending January 7, 2023, the capacity utilization rate was recorded at 71.3%. In contrast, mills’ capacity utilization rate during the same reporting period last year was recorded at 79.8%.
“I think we’re hovering near the top and I outside of another black swan event, I think we’ll see prices hover within a buck or two of where they are for the foreseeable future,” a source said. “I don’t see anyone rushing to restock their warehouses at these levels because there’s still a lot of concern that prices could dip back down before their steel arrives. I don’t see any big reasons for prices to keep going up, but if you consider where scrap is, where iron or is, and where energy costs are, I don’t see any reason for prices to go back down either.”