Spot prices in the US domestic flats market are holding steady this week, but the price trend may be pointing downward by mid-Q2.
Demand for cold rolled coil (CRC) is still firm-CRC is the strongest product at many domestic flat-rolled mills-but hot rolled coil (HRC) booking activity has gradually slowed in the past week, and it may be possible for an order with sizeable tonnage to be booked at or even slightly below this week's range of $43.00-$45.00 cwt. ($948-$992/mt or $860-$900/nt) ex-Midwest mill. CRC spot prices, although also unchanged from last week-still $48.00-$50.00 cwt. ($1,058-$1,102/mt or $960-1,000/nt) ex-Midwest mill-are holding steady and most orders are being placed on the higher end of the range.
The majority of lead times in the domestic flats market have gradually moved into May in the Midwest this past week. But now that over a month has passed since the last official price increase announcement was issued, concern is growing that prices are close to hitting a wall, if they haven't already done so.
On the West Coast, mill order books for May are filling up steadily, but at a slower rate than order books for March and April had, although May order books for at least one West Coast mill are expected to close next week. Spot prices ex-West Coast mill are $46.00-$48.00 cwt. ($1,014-$1,058/mt or $920-$960/nt) for HRC and $51.00-$53.00 cwt. ($1,124-$1,168/mt or $1,020-$1,060/nt) for CRC-both unchanged from last week's levels.
A lack of confidence in the long-term direction of US flats prices is affecting booking futures from offshore producers. Traders indicate that import activity is "consistently okay" but "no one is booking serious tonnage for delivery in June." However, negotiable offers from Russian mills may begin to undercut the US market in the not-so-distant future. SteelOrbis has learned that Russian offers, officially in the $40.00-$42.00 cwt. ($882-$926/mt or $800-$840/nt) duty-paid FOB loaded truck range for HRC, have been heard as much as $3.00 cwt. ($66/mt or $60/nt) below the low end of the range.
| Cwt. | Metric Ton (mt) | Net ton (nt) | Change from last week | |
| US domestic | ||||
| HRC | $43.00-$45.00 | $948-$992 | $860-$900 | neutral |
| CRC | $48.00-$50.00 | $1,058-$1,102 | $960-$1,000 | neutral |
| Mexican* | ||||
| HRC | $40.00-$42.00 | $882-$926 | $800-$840 | neutral |
| CRC | $46.00-$47.00 | $1,014-$1,036 | $920-$940 | neutral |
| Russian** | ||||
| HRC | $40.00-$42.00 | $882-$926 | $800-$840 | neutral |
| CRC | $45.00-$47.00 | $992-$1,036 | $900- $940 | neutral |
| Chinese** | ||||
| CRC | $45.00-$47.00 | $992-$1,036 | $900- $940 | neutral |
**Duty-paid FOB loaded truck in US Gulf ports