The EU hot rolled coil (HRC) market has remained largely stable over the past week, with mills continuing to hold their offer levels unchanged despite limited improvement in tradable prices, while import dynamics, particularly sizable bookings of ex-Turkey material, have attracted the attention of the market.
Specifically, in the local EU market, while offers from ArcelorMittal for April delivery HRC have remained at €700/mt delivered, or around €685/mt ex-works, the target prices for April delivery from other mills in northern Europe have remained at €670-680/mt ex-works, the same as last week. However, the tradable price levels are still estimated at €640-650/mt ex-works, mainly the same as last week.
“With most March shipments already committed by regional suppliers, near-term supply options are limited,” a European trader told SteelOrbis, adding, “Sourcing flexibility remains tight, with CBAM-related cost burdens keeping imports commercially unworkable.”
In Italy, mills have been targeting €650-660/mt for mainly April delivery, mostly the same as last week, though, according to sources, the mills have also been aiming to increase their offers to €670-680/mt ex-works levels. However, the tradable price level is estimated at €640-645/mt ex-works, up by €10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week, with several deals reportedly signed for around 1,000 mt in total at the abovementioned level for late March-early April delivery.
Meanwhile, in the import segment, indicative offer prices for HRC have settled at €510-547/mt CFR, versus €495-540/mt CFR last week, though lower offers for ex-Indonesia HRC have also been reported in the market at $560/mt CFR, which translates to around €475/mt CFR, but, according to sources, “No one is currently interested due to excessively high CBAM risks.” Meanwhile, HRC import offers including CBAM costs on DDP basis have remained at €615-630/mt levels, depending on the supplier.
Notably, while offers for ex-Turkey HRC have been estimated at €520-530/mt CFR, duty included, and around €630/mt DDP including CBAM costs, market sources report that substantial volumes of ex-Turkey HRC have been booked since mid-January. In particular, the total volumes booked are estimated at 230,000-250,000 mt, while some sources suggest figures exceeding 300,000 mt - levels widely regarded by market insiders as being too high given the associated EU quota risks. The deal prices in the transactions were reported at $548-555/mt FOB around two to three weeks ago, while offers voiced during last week and this week have increased to $560-568/mt FOB. These levels translate to approximately €520-525/mt CFR, duty included.
Furthermore, according to sources, several deals for smaller volumes or around 5,000-10,000 mt have been signed for ex-Turkey HRC in Spain through traders at €615-630/mt DDP.
Meanwhile, ex-India HRC offers have been voiced at around $600/mt CFR, which translates to around €510/mt CFR, though there has been market charter that the same material has been offered by traders at €600/mt DDP as well, inclusive of CBAM costs. Furthermore, offers for ex-Thailand and ex-Vietnam HRC have been voiced at around €535/mt CFR and €547/mt CFR, respectively.
In addition, most offers for ex-Asia HRC on DDP basis, including CBAM, through traders have been voiced at €620/mt DDP, the same as last week, while offers for ex-Algeria HRC have settled at €615-620/mt DDP.
$1 = €0.85