Is the US HRC market bracing for a downtrend?

Monday, 22 December 2014 19:56:00 (GMT+3)   |   San Diego
       

It’s been a relatively quiet week for those involved in buying, selling and trading US domestic and import hot rolled coil (HRC), as early-vacations, year-end considerations and widespread rumors of a down-trending market seem to have people taking a step back.

The last two weeks in December are often synonymous with lackluster activity, according to SteelOrbis sources, but even those who do need to make purchases to fill holes in their inventory are exercising caution. With ever-looming rumors of price downticks on the horizon many are buying only what they need, when they need it until they feel the market has reached bottom.

For now, however, the market is trending stable.  The most commonly reported spot price transaction range for US domestic HRC has held at $30.00-$31.00 cwt. ($661-$671/mt or $600-$620/nt), ex-Midwest mill, while futures offers out of Japan, Brazil, Mexico and Australia have remained lateral.  “Do I still think there’s some wiggle room in that if you’re looking to book tons, yes,” according to one Texas-based source.  “And do I think there’s going to be additional revisions after the first of the year?  Absolutely.”
  Cwt. Metric Ton (mt) Net ton (nt) Change from last week
US domestic        
Ex-Midwest mill        
HRC $30-$31 $661-$684 $600-$620 neutral
         
Turkey*        
HRC $27.50-$28.50 $606-$628 $550-$570 neutral
         
Japan*        
HRC $27-$28 $595-$617 $540-$560 neutral
         
Australia*        
HRC $28-$29 $617-$639 $560-$580 neutral but flexible
         
Brazil*        
HRC $28-$29 $639-$661 $580-$600 neutral but flexible
         
*DDP loaded truck US Gulf Coast ports 


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