Indian local hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have remained flat during the past week amid muted trading conditions for festival holidays with listed prices of mills and trade prices almost on a par, with market participants still assessing emerging demand before committing fresh bookings, SteelOrbis learned from trade and industry circles.
Sources said that, after select private mills hiked base prices for November last week, mills’ listed price ranged at INR 71,500- 72,500/mt ($964-977/mt) ex-works. Traded prices at the lower end improved marginally at around INR 72,600/mt ($978/mt) ex-Mumbai against the lower end price of INR 72,100/mt ($971/mt) a week ago. Prices at the higher end however settled lower at INR 73,000/mt ($984/mt) ex-Mumbai, against INR 73,100/mt ($985/mt) a week ago.
“Prices are generally on the softer side during the second quarter of fiscal years. Our estimate is that in July-September demand is down by 2-5 percent and this is resulting in a slight softening of traded prices,” a steel sector analyst with a Mumbai financial advisory firm said.
“However, the HRC traded price trend for the rest of the year still has significant upside bias. Domestic demand coupled with developments of decarbonization in China will support prices at higher levels. For Indian mills, prices will also move up on a cost push,” he added.
According to the marketing head with a government-run steel producer, HRC base prices need to move up by at least another INR 4,000/mt ($54/mt) to fully compensate for rising input costs at the current level including landed cost of imported coking coal currently estimated at $410/mt CFR Haldia port in the east.
Such signals emanating from producers have triggered a lot of talk in the market that local mills could go in for a second base price hike in November with at least two large Mumbai-based traders forecasting such an increase to be at least by INR 2,000/mt ($27/mt).
$1= INR 74.20
