Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have been unchanged over the past week as sentiment has remained positive in the local market, with Indian mills continuing to increase their offers for domestic customers and mostly refraining from concluding export orders.
More specifically, ex-India HRC prices have remained at $590-620/mt FOB, the same as last week. According to sources, the demand recession is so deep across Asia that, even with ex-China offers falling silent owing to the long holiday, lower supplies have failed to have any impact on prices, while Indian sellers are “notionally” maintaining stable export prices amid negligible export allocations and robust domestic sales.
Sources said some minor deals to Europe have been reported after Indian mills lowered offers. In particular, a trade for ex-India HRC has been heard at $675/mt CFR Antwerp, for an undisclosed volume, down $10/mt from a comparable deal a week ago. However, this information has not been confirmed by the time of publication, and, according to European traders, “This deal is very unlikely to have been done as local offers are estimated at around $660-670/mt ex-works levels currently in northern Europe.”
“Indian mills have put exports on hold. It might change a little as revised EU tariff quotas have kicked in from October 1 and this might trigger improved import interest,” an official at ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel Limited told SteelOrbis.
“However, the acceptable valuation in the EU is unlikely to be above $670/mt CFR. It is unclear whether this will be workable for Indian sellers amid lucrative local realizations and very low export allocation for the current quarter,” he added.
“Indian mills on the west coast may do some surprise export bookings to counter the balance between demand and supply in the local market,” an Indian trader said.
