Contrary to the local Turkish market where prices are firm and demand is so far sufficient, Turkey’s exports of hot rolled coil have been challenging, in particular due to the lack of demand from the EU.
According to sources, the current export price for July production HRC from Turkey can be nowadays considered to stand at $880-900/mt FOB, while the latest workable levels for the European market have been reported at around $860/mt FOB, but for shorter lead times $880/mt FOB levels have also been on the table from Turkey. Earlier this week, some mills reported offers for exports far above $900/mt FOB, but these levels are considered to be quite removed from the current market conditions.
Market sources express some concerns regarding the consequences of the Suez Canal situation, which are becoming more and more vivid. Along with the expected increase in freight rates, considerable delays in deliveries are expected, which will surely disturb the market. “Now it seems that it will take a minimum of two to three weeks to free Ever Given, which means either that vessels wait or reroute - it is still a big delay in deliveries. New vessels keep coming every day, making the jam worse and worse,” a Turkish producer told SteelOrbis.
The discussed delays in deliveries are expected to hit the rest of the European flat steel market, where buyers have been actively booking from India specifically over the past few months. “There will be a shortage in Europe and there is no overseas supplier who has May and June production in hand to cover it. Prices will increase further,” a trader stated. In fact, by late March 26 there has been information in the market regarding the new price rise made by ArcelorMittal Europe. According to sources, its HRC price has increased by €50/mt for northern Europe and by €80/mt for Italy to €900/mt ex-works. Such a move may open some doors for Turkey also, though it is believed the buyers will be seeking to buy for shorter lead times in the import segment. In addition, Turkish mills are still restrained by the currently valid antidumping duty of 4.8-7.6 percent for HRC depending on the producer.
