The uptrend for all US domestic flat rolled steel products, including HRC and CRC, has persisted since our last report a week ago. Similar to other finished steel products throughout the US, and in many cases, the globe, prices continue to rise at lightning speed.
Current prices have jumped, once again, week-over-week. US HRC prices are up by at least $2.00 cwt. ($44/mt or $40/nt) since last Friday and are today being heard in the range of $45-$48 cwt. ($992-$1,058/mt or $900-$960/nt) FOB mill, although some market players have indicated some spot market sales have taken place at $50 cwt. ($1,102/mt or $1,000/nt) FOB mill.
US CRC prices are also up by at least $2.00 cwt. ($44/mt or $40/nt), and are being heard in the range of $52-$55 cwt. ($1,146-$1,213/mt or $1,040-$1,100/nt), FOB mill, although some market players have indicated that some spot market sales have taken place “much higher than that.”
Deals toward the bottom end of the above stated ranges, sources note, are expected to be gone much sooner than later. “Prices are definitely trending on the high end and we expect they’ll keep climbing,” one source said.
Also notable is that current spot market prices have exceeded the post-Section 232 peak. In late-June 2018, US HRC prices topped at $45 cwt. ($992/mt or $900/nt), whereas CRC prices topped at $51 cwt. ($1,124/mt or $1,020/nt), both FOB mill.
Market conditions largely mirror what’s been seen in recent weeks: availability is tight, supply is under-pacing demand, and raw materials costs keep climbing, as SteelOrbis noted earlier this week in our US domestic scrap report. Although some scrap market sources believe that prices will trend up at $30-$40/gt during the January buy cycle, others believe that the market will settle up by “at least $50-$60/gt.”
Many SteelOrbis sources report they’re concerned about what will happen to prices “once the bubble pops.”
“There’s a lot of new capacity that’s going to be coming online in 2021, and it’s only a matter of time before prices whiplash back in the other direction.”
