US domestic hot rolled coil prices finally appear to have leveled since our last report a week ago. According to sources, the average transaction range continues to trend at roughly $57-$59 cwt. ($1,257-$1,301/mt or $1,140-$1,180/nt), FOB mill.
Cold rolled coil prices are also mostly level week-over-week and continue to hold at $68-$70 cwt. ($1,499-$1,543/mt or $1,360-$1,400/nt), FOB mill.
Similar to what SteelOrbis has reported in previous weeks, transactions slightly above these ranges have been heard for small-tonnage orders.
Lead times for both products also appear to have stalled.
Whereas last week, HRC lead times were trending at approximately 9 weeks, this week, sources have said that lead times are trending “at 7-9 weeks, give or take,” whereas lead times for cold rolled coil are now being heard “at or below 9 weeks.”
“For the past couple of months we’ve been saying that the market was getting close to its cresting point,” a source said. “Some people thought this thing might still have legs through June, while others thought we’d cap out before the middle of May. I think what you’re seeing now is that scrap didn’t go up this month, lead times are starting to soften, and you have a lot of buyers out there that aren’t about to buy anything unless they 100% need it.”
Another source agreed.
“Order activity is hardly booming and we’re not seeing the same type of thing we saw during the post-COVID boom when the mills couldn’t keep up with orders,” another source said. “Activity is OK, but it’s not off the charts. Capacity has been restricted, but AHMSA should be back up and running in the not-too-distant-future and that should help things. I think we’re about to see this thing trend back down to sensible levels.”