Asian hot rolled coil (HRC) exporters have remained the most active in global sales this week, particularly to the Middle East and Europe, supported by additional discounts that have helped them secure more volumes across key markets. At the same time, ex-China HRC prices have retreated as the demand outlook has weakened and futures prices have slid, putting pressure on offers to Southeast Asia. Vietnam’s import market has stayed quiet, with Chinese pipe-making offers easing further in line with futures-driven declines. Indian mills have kept their domestic HRC prices mostly stable, yet competition from Asian suppliers and bearish overseas indications have continued to weigh on market confidence. In Europe, the ongoing mismatch between buyer and seller price expectations has persisted, even as buyers have taken advantage of competitive ex-India and ex-Indonesia pricing, booking sizable volumes. Across the GCC, purchasing activity has remained steady, but buyers have accepted lower levels for ex-Asia coils, including those from Japan, Taiwan and China, and have resisted any attempts by suppliers to push prices higher. Turkey’s local and export HRC prices have been minimal changes, with slight fluctuations in import offers amid a cautious buying mood. Meanwhile, Egypt’s domestic producer has increased local HRC prices but has kept export activity limited, focusing on the internal market amid weaker external conditions.
Ex-China HRC prices have rolled back from last week, mirroring the correction in the domestic market as concerns over demand strength halted the previous week’s HRC price rally in China. At the same time, market sentiment has eased under broader macroeconomic pressures and continued expectations of output cuts tied to environmental restrictions in Tangshan, the country’s major steelmaking hub. Specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $465-480/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $472.5/mt FOB, mainly for December shipment, down by $5/mt week on week. Meanwhile, offers from smaller mills have been voiced mainly at $460-470/mt CFR, down by $5/mt since last week. At the same time, by Friday, November 7, offers from most Chinese traders have moved to $460-462/mt CFR, compared to $470/mt FOB and above last week, while, according to sources, offers from non-VAT traders have been voiced at as low as $450/mt FOB, and some at even $445/mt CFR. As of November 7, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,245/mt ($457/mt), decreasing by RMB 63/mt ($8.9/mt) or 1.9 percent since October 31, while declining by 0.34 percent compared to the previous trading day, November 6.
Vietnam’s HRC import market has remained largely stagnant over the past week, with re-rolling grade offers from most foreign suppliers holding relatively stable amid extremely slow trading activity. In contrast, Chinese suppliers have reduced their pipe-making HRC offers by more than $10/mt week on week, amid a decline in HRC futures after last week’s brief recovery. At the same time, according to sources, local prices from Formosa Ha Tinh Steel (FHS) for orders of above 20,000 mt have been voiced with discounts this week or at as low as $507/mt CIF Hai Phong port and at $511/mt CIF Ho Chi Minh port. Meanwhile, import offers for ex-China Q235 2,000 mm HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $471-472/mt CFR for late December shipment, compared to $485-490/mt CFR last week. Besides, according to sources, several deals are reported to have been signed for ex-China Q235 HRC at $470-472/mt CFR this week. Furthermore, offers for SAE1006 HRC from most foreign suppliers have moved mainly sideways over the past week. In particular, offers for SAE1006 HRC from India have been voiced at $495-500/mt CFR for late December shipment, compared to $497-5505/mt CFR last week. Besides, offers for ex-Indonesia HRC in Vietnam have settled at $495/mt CFR, the same as last week, for January shipment, while offers from a Malaysian HRC mill for SAE1006 3 mm have been voiced at $520/mt CFR for shipment in late January. Furthermore, offers for ex-Japan SAE1006 HRC have been estimated at $500-510/mt CFR for early January shipment. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has remained at $495-500/mt CFR, the same as last week.
Export prices for Indian hot rolled coil (HRC) have remained largely stable over the past week. However, market sentiment has been softening as talk of lower offers and deal prices emerging in Europe, alongside intensified competition in the Middle East. Specifically, ex-India HRC offers to the Middle East have been maintained at lower levels of $485-500/mt FOB, and, though the slightly higher number of enquiries indicated a revival of buyers’ interest, speculative chatter regarding a few deals at the lower end of the range have not been confirmed by either buyers or sellers, amid continuing uncertainties. Meanwhile, ex-India offers in southern Europe have been voiced at around $520/mt FOB, down by $5/mt week on week, which translates to around $570/mt CFR. However, lower offers at around $550-555/mt CFR, or around $500-505/mt FOB, have started to circulate in the market, with a several deals reported to have been signed at this level in Italy this week. At the same time, indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been estimated at $495-500/mt CFR levels, mainly the same as last week. As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has settled at $485-520/mt FOB, down by $5/mt on the higher end of the range week on week, since, even though lower offers have been voiced for Indian material in the EU at $500/mt FOB, higher offers at $520/mt FOB have continued to circulate so far.
European HRC producers have continued to push for higher offer levels for January delivery coils this week, while the gap between buyers’ price ideas and mills’ target levels has remained wide, exceeding €40-50/mt. More specifically, local mills in northern Europe are reported to be targeting €630-650/mt ex-works for new orders for January deliveries. However, according to sources, while the tradable price levels for January delivery coils have been estimated at 610/mt ex-works, workable prices for December arrival are still voiced at lower levels or at around €580-600/mt ex-works, the same as last week. In Italy, indicative HRC offers from mills have settled at €620-630/mt for December and January delivery, against €610-615/mt ex-works last week, while the tradable price level for December has remained at €580-585/mt ex-works, the same as last week. On the import side, despite persistent obstacles related to CBAM compliance and safeguard limitations, EU buyers have kept securing sizable volumes of ex-India and at ex-Indonesia HRC at competitive prices, extending the wave of substantial ex-India bookings seen last week. More specifically, this week several deals for around 100,000 mt in total are reported to have been signed at $550-580/mt CFR southern Europe, or at around €477-503/mt CFR, without CBAM costs. Furthermore, talk about another deal for around 25,000-30,000 mt of ex-Indonesia HRC signed at €480/mt CFR, excluding CBAM, has been circulating in the market. Besides, another deal for around 40,000 mt of ex-Indonesia HRC has been reportedly signed at €470/mt CFR Italy, without CBAM, according to sources. However, most offers for ex-Indonesia HRC have been voiced at €480-485/mt CFR. Offers for ex-Malaysia HRC have been also voiced in southern Europe, at €480-490/mt CFR, without CBAM costs, while indicative offers for ex-Turkey HRC have settled at €515-520/mt CFR, duty included, but without CBAM costs. Offers for ex-Thailand HRC have been voiced at €545/mt CFR, without CBAM. At the same time, market insiders have reported HRC import offers coming to the region including CBAM costs on DDP basis at €560-580/mt levels, depending on the supplier, which means the spread between domestic target prices and import offers on DDP basis, including CBAM-related costs, has now reached €80-100/mt.
Local HRC prices in Turkey have remained officially at $540-555/mt ex-works, in line with the previous couple of weeks, but $535/mt ex-works/CFR Marmara is considered possible with specific order breakdowns. Export offers have been standing at $530-540/mt FOB, with the European markets being the main target. Import offers from China to Turkey stand at $477-485/mt CFR for non-VAT cargoes and $485-490/mt CFR for regular cargoes. Bids are closer to $480-482/mt CFR for re-rolling grades, while a cargo of 15,000-20,000 mt of pipe-making grade has been sold to Turkey at this level, evaluated at around $505-510/mt CFR effective, versus the initial offers of $515-520/mt CFR. Egypt has sold up to 20,000 mt at $547/mt CFR following a couple of weeks of absence. Malaysia, according to sources, has softened its offers by $5-10/mt to $535/mt CFR for January shipments. Russia continues offering December production at around $470-475/mt CFR for sanctioned material and at $490/mt CFR officially for non-sanctioned material. Buyers assume $5-10/mt discounts are possible.
HRC volumes from Russia for January production are expected to reach at least 150,000 mt from the two main producers. Their current export offers are evaluated at $410-420/mt FOB Baltic region and $460-465/mt FOB Black Sea, with mainly the MENA region targeted with offers at $465-475/mt CFR depending on the destination. In the domestic market in Russia, the new prices for flats are expected to be announced early next week and the prices might decline further due to subdued business activity in the domestic consuming sectors.
In Egypt, Ezz Steel has announced an EGP 2,000/mt increase for domestic HRC, with its offers now standing at EGP 35,000/mt ex-works, including 14 percent VAT. Based on the exchange rate of $1 = EGP 47, the current offer stands at $653/mt ex-works, up $37/mt from the previous level if the same exchange rate is considered. The latest import offers from China stand at $480-490/mt CFR, while Russia has been offering at $465-475/mt CFR. As a result, taking into account the valid safeguard tax of a minimum of EGP 3,673/mt or $78/mt, the HRC import offers to Egypt may still be workable. Export offers from Egypt are at $535-540/mt FOB with the lower end fixed in deals for up to 20,000 mt to Turkey, while the upper end has been seen in a sale of 10,000 mt to Tunisia. Notably, ex-Algeria HRC export offers are at $570/mt FOB, in line with the previous week’s levels.
In the GCC, import activity continues to be observed and several deals have been concluded recently. However, as buyers continue to resist higher import prices, deals have been done at the lowest levels achievable. Due to this resistance and softer demand, Chinese suppliers, who had increased prices in recent weeks, have now reduced their offers. Current offers from China stand at $490-515/mt CFR, down from $500-525/mt CFR in the previous week, for December shipment. By the end of last week, Chinese mills are reported to have sold around 30,000 mt of SS400 HRC at $490/mt CFR to Saudi Arabia. Major Chinese mills have been trying to keep their offers at $505-515/mt CFR, while non-VAT traders have been quoting $485-495/mt CFR. Additional deals have been heard from Japan and Taiwan, with around 50,000 mt and 25,000 mt of HRC sold at approximately $490/mt CFR and $495/mt CFR, respectively, for December-January shipment to the UAE. This week, offers from Japan and Taiwan remain stable at $495-500/mt CFR. Similarly, Indian suppliers have kept their offers stable at $515-525/mt CFR, though no deals have been concluded yet since their prices remain higher than competing origins.