In the last week of November, the global HRC market has shown mixed and cautious sentiments, with regional movements diverging despite China’s and some other global exporters’ attempted rebound. Specifically, in China, domestic HRC prices have increased, supported by higher futures and improved local sentiment. However, this strength has not been translated into export business as ex-China HRC offers have shown only a mild upward movement, while overseas buyers have resisted higher prices due to weak demand. In Vietnam, poor consumption has pressured the market. Despite the recovery of ex-China Q235 HRC prices, re-rolling HRC prices have dropped from other Asian suppliers, as weak downstream demand has undermined buying interest. In India, export prices have remained stable, but trading has stalled as buyers in the Middle East and Europe have adopted a cautious stance, which has prevented any firm upward movement from Indian mills. In Turkey, HRC prices have risen, supported by higher scrap costs and restricted mill allocation, while the UAE market has remained subdued. Meanwhile in Europe, the market has reached a near standstill. High inventories and CBAM-related uncertainty have limited trading, while buyers have stayed on the sidelines and mills have struggled to secure fresh orders.
In China, although average HRC prices in the domestic market have increased slightly compared to the previous week amid rising HRC futures prices, most offers from Chinese HRC exporters, both mills and traders, have remained relatively stable or have been showing only a slight upward bias. Specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $460-485/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $472.5/mt FOB, the same as last week. Meanwhile, offers from smaller mills have been voiced mainly at $455-460/mt CFR, up by $5/mt on the lower end of the range week on week. At the same time, while offers from most Chinese traders have remained at $455-460/mt CFR, according to sources offers from non-VAT traders have remained at $445-450/mt FOB. In the meantime, as of November 28, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,302/mt ($465/mt), increasing by RMB 32/mt ($4.5/mt) since November 21, while rising by 0.27 percent compared to the previous trading day, November 27.
Vietnam’s HRC import market has remained weak this week, even as some improvement emerged from China following the rebound in HRC futures, which pushed up ex-China coil prices in Vietnam. However, offers for re-rolling grade material from most foreign suppliers have stayed largely stable or even shown a slight downward bias as overseas sellers continue to struggle to attract Vietnamese buyers amid persistently weak demand. Import offers for ex-China Q235 2,000 mm HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $475-478/mt CFR, compared to $475/mt CFR last week. Meanwhile, offers for SAE1006 HRC from most foreign suppliers have remained relatively stable over the past week or have even been showing a slight downward bias as most suppliers have been struggling to attract Vietnamese buyers’ attention due to slow demand. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has moved to $490-495/mt CFR, down by $1-5/mt week on week and, despite some recovery in China, more offers at lower levels have been voiced from other suppliers due to slow demand in the country.
In India, HRC export prices have remained relatively stable over the past week, but trade activity has continued to be almost silent, attributed to the challenging terms of buyers in the Middle East and Europe who are highly averse to import risks. Specifically, ex-India HRC offers in the Middle East have remained mainly unchanged in the range of $480-490/mt FOB, but no deals could be concluded amid irreconcilable discounts demands of $20-30/mt sought by buyers. Offers from one of the Indian mills to the UAE have been voiced at $505-510/mt CFR, mainly the same as last week. However, another Indian producer has been offering its material a bit higher or at around $515/mt CFR UAE. Meanwhile, in Europe ex-India HRC offers have been estimated at $520/mt FOB and above, the same as last week, which translates to around $570-575/mt CFR, but buyers have remained cautious owing to weak demand and preferring to avoid risks of trade barriers including the impending carbon tax. Furthermore, indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $495-500/mt CFR, mainly the same as last week. However, according to sources, an offer from one of the Indian mills is reported to have been voiced in Vietnam at $485-488/mt CFR, though no information about a fresh deal has been confirmed by the time of publication. As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has remained at $480-520/mt FOB, the same as last week.
Domestic HRC prices in Turkey have finally moved up, supported by the stronger EU market on the back of CBAM issues and related import price uncertainties. Firm and high import scrap prices in Turkey are another strong factor supporting finished steel pricing in the country, as well as a certain lack of allocation for January from some producers. Currently, local HRC stands at $555-570/mt ex-works base, versus $535-545/mt ex-works earlier, while $550-555/mt ex-works levels are considered to be more realistic. Export offers are officially back to $540-550/mt FOB base supported by the latest uptrend in the EU market.
Import offers from China have been mainly ranging within $480-490/mt CFR this week for January shipments. According to sources, around mid-November a 45,000 mt HRC lot was sold to a Turkish re-roller at $472/mt CFR. Import offers from Malaysia for end-of-January shipments are at $540-545/mt CFR, while Egypt is expected to be back in the market next week. Russia will return shortly as well after selling most of its lots for January shipments at $460-470/mt to $480-495/mt CFR depending on the mill.
North African mills have not been so active this week, taking into account the relatively high prices in their domestic market and therefore their limited export allocation. An Egyptian mill is expected to return with $525-535/mt FOB for end-of-January shipments, while an Algerian exporter has been offering stable prices at $570/mt FOB for the same lead time.
In the UAE, trading activity has remained limited this week, as many Emirati buyers had already secured significant volumes in previous weeks and so felt no immediate need to make new purchases. However, sources noted that a few small lots have been booked recently from China. Overall, most HRC suppliers have kept their offers relatively stable, though Russian suppliers have appeared with more aggressive pricing and have even managed to conclude sales, particularly to Saudi Arabian buyers. According to reports, China sold small lots to the UAE at $480/mt CFR, while Russian suppliers completed a 50,000 mt sale at $455/mt CFR for January shipment. Currently, SS400 offers from China remain mostly stable at $480-495/mt CFR for December-January shipment. Russian mills are also reported to be offering at $460-470/mt CFR for January shipment to the UAE. Indian suppliers, meanwhile, have reduced their offers by another $5/mt this week to $500-510/mt CFR for January shipment, yet no new deals have been concluded due to limited interest from UAE buyers. Japanese suppliers, on the other hand, have maintained stable pricing, keeping offers at $490-500/mt CFR over the past week for January shipment.
Trade activity in HRC market in Europe has slowed to a near halt as most buyers have not been rushing to replenish stocks given sufficient levels of stocks, while sentiment has remained cautious. Besides, most distributors claim that they are supplied through the end of 2025 and some even into early 2026, meaning the market is not likely to see fresh restocking before December. More specifically, local mills in northern Europe have kept targeting €630-650/mt ex-works for new orders for January and February deliveries, the same as last week, while in Italy offers from mills have remained at €600-630/mt for January delivery. Meanwhile, the tradable price levels for January delivery coils in northern Europe have been estimated at €610-620/mt ex-works for mainly January delivery, up by €10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week, while the tradable price level for January delivery in Italy is still estimated at €590-600/mt ex-works. The import HRC market has remained under pressure from the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Although more traders have been proposing DDP-based contracts assuming the CBAM risks, buyers are still uneasy about the chance of prices rising. Indicative offer prices for HRC have remained at €475-520/mt CFR, while HRC import offers including CBAM costs on DDP basis have been voiced at €580-600/mt levels, depending on the supplier, up by €20/mt on the lower end of the range week on week.