The global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has been mainly stable this week, with slight downward pressure in several regions as trading activity has remained cautious. In Asia, ex-China HRC prices have been either stable or slightly lower as mills have maintained their offer prices unchanged, but traders have begun offering discounted deals to stimulate demand. Vietnam’s import market has showed little movement, with prices staying stable amid subdued buying interest. Meanwhile, Indian suppliers have continued to adjust their export strategies - ex-India HRC prices have fallen further this week as sellers have offered new discounted deals to Gulf buyers, although many have still focused on securing business in Europe. In Turkey, the import HRC market has seen some price fluctuations and deal activity, while domestic offers have remained mostly unchanged. The UAE market, meanwhile, is one of the few bright spots, with import demand remaining firm this week due to restocking by local buyers. In Europe, domestic HRC prices have remained stable at high levels. However, the import market has remained uncertain as buyers and sellers have continued to assess the impact of CBAM-related charges on final costs.
Ex-China HRC price from mills have remained relatively stable or have shown only a slight downward bias this week, though Chinese traders have failed to keep their offers unchanged, with several new deals emerging with additional discounts. Specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $460-480/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $470/mt FOB, for December shipment, down by $2.5/mt over the past week. Meanwhile, offers from smaller mills have been voiced mainly at $450-460/mt CFR, versus 460-465/mt CFR last week. At the same time, traders report that buyers in regions including Asia, the Middle East, South America and Africa have been actively seeking Chinese HRC, and overseas interest has been reflected in bids in the range of $425-440/mt FOB, with the upper end of the range seen as potentially acceptable for deals. Offers from most Chinese traders have moved to $450-460/mt CFR, compared to $460-465/mt CFR last week, while, according to sources, offers from non-VAT traders have been voiced at as low as $440-445/mt FOB, down by $5-10/mt week on week. According to sources, a deal for ex-China Q235 HRC for around 10,000 mt has been signed at $468/mt CFR for December shipment this week. Besides, Chinese suppliers have also managed to sell around 10,000 mt of HRC in the UAE at $495/mt CFR. As of November 14, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,256/mt ($459/mt), increasing by RMB 11/mt ($1.5/mt) since November 4, while rising by 0.06 percent compared to the previous trading day, November 13.
In Vietnam, the HRC import market has remained weak, with re-rolling grade offers from most foreign suppliers holding relatively stable. Offers from Chinese suppliers for pipe-making HRC have also largely remained unchanged, with a few deals reported at slight discounts of a few dollars. Overall, the market continues to lack a clear direction and stability, as fluctuations in Chinese HRC futures prices keep sentiment uncertain. Import offers for ex-China Q235 2,000 mm HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $470-472/mt CFR for late December shipment, mainly the same as last week. Besides, according to sources, following several deals reported to have been signed for ex-China Q235 HRC at $470-472/mt CFR last week, this week a deal for around 10,000 mt of ex-China HRC has been transacted at $468/mt CFR. Offers for SAE1006 HRC from most foreign suppliers have remained relatively stable at $495-520/mt CFR, depending on the supplier, though most bids have remained at $495/mt CFR and slightly above. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has remained at $495-500/mt CFR, the same as last week.
Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have dropped slightly over the past week amid mounting competitive pressure globally. Ex-India HRC offers for the Middle East have been reported at $480-490/mt FOB, versus $485-500/mt FOB a week ago, with few small-volume deals confirmed at the lower end of the range and even at $475/mt FOB level. According to sources, Indian mills’ HRC export offers to the Southeast Asia and Middle East regions have been in a similar range, at around $495-510/mt CFR, depending on thin-gauge material. In the meantime, most offers submitted in Europe have settled at around $500-520/mt FOB, depending on the region, which translates to around $550-570/mt CFR, compared to deal prices at $550-580/mt CFR last week. The SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has moved to $475-520/mt FOB, down by $10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week.
Turkey's domestic HRC prices have again remained stable this week at $535-545/mt ex-works base for January deliveries, but offers of $545-550/mt ex-works are also heard for material with a longer lead time. Export offers are also relatively stable at $530-540/mt FOB, with hardly any significant discounts applicable since the market in the EU, though characterized by confusion as regards imports, is quite firm in terms of domestic offers.
Import offers from China have slid by around $5-10/mt to $475-477/mt CFR for non-VAT material and to $480/mt CFR for regular offers from traders to re-rolling companies. Offers from China for pipe-making grades of HRC have this week been at $510/mt CFR, down $5/mt over the past week.
Russia has as expected been active in HRC sales for December production, having traded around 25,000 mt to Turkey at $483-490/mt CFR. The sanctioned material has been traded, according to sources, at $460-470/mt CFR Turkey, with the same level reported to be available for buyers in the MENA region.
In North Africa, export prices from Algeria for January shipment HRC are stable at $570/mt FOB, while the indicative offers from Egypt are still at $530-540/mt FOB for the same lead time. Domestic HRC offers in these countries have also stabilized - at $653/mt ex-works Egypt and $600/mt ex-works Algeria. Import HRC offers to North Africa are mainly heard from Russia and China at $460-470/mt and $480-490/mt CFR, respectively, both for early January shipments.
In the UAE, import activity has remained firm this week, driven by restocking needs among local buyers. Emirati purchasers seeking prompt deliveries have shown greater interest in Indian purchases, attracted by faster shipment times and more competitive prices. As a result, several new deals have been concluded with Indian suppliers, keeping trading activity steady despite ongoing regional price pressure. Indian suppliers have reduced their offers to $505-515/mt CFR, down from $515-525/mt CFR in the previous week, for December shipments, and are reported to have sold around 20,000 mt of HRC to the UAE at $500-505/mt CFR. In addition, buyers in Bahrain and Qatar have purchased about 15,000 mt and 20,000 mt, respectively, from India at $480/mt FOB and $470/mt FOB, equivalent to $510-515/mt CFR and $500-505/mt CFR, though these deals remain unconfirmed. Meanwhile, Chinese suppliers have further cut their offers to $480-495/mt CFR UAE, down from $490-515/mt CFR in the previous week, for December shipments. Some traders have noted delivery delays for recent Chinese purchases, although sources report that around 10,000 mt have been sold to the UAE at $495/mt CFR this week, but this has remained unconfirmed by the time of publication. In contrast, Japanese and Taiwanese suppliers, who sold large lots earlier, have kept their offers stable over the past week at $495-500/mt CFR and $495/mt CFR, respectively, for December-January shipments.
European HRC producers have kept their January delivery offer prices stable at high levels this week, while market talk has emerged about another potential price increase from the leading producer, ArcelorMittal, for February delivery. More specifically, local mills in northern Europe are reported to be targeting €630-650/mt ex-works for new orders for January and February deliveries, the same as last week, while in Italy indicative HRC offers from mills have remained at €620-630/mt mainly for January delivery. The tradable price levels for January delivery coils in northern Europe have been estimated at €600-620/mt ex-works mainly for January delivery, compared to €580-610/mt ex-works last week, while the tradable price level in Italy for January delivery has been estimated at €590-600/mt ex-works. However, according to sources, there are still some volumes left for December delivery at around €585-600/mt ex-works. At the same time, discussions have emerged about a possible new price increase from leading producer ArcelorMittal for February delivery. Specifically, ArcelorMittal is currently offering HRC at around €650/mt ex-works and delivered, with market sources indicating that the producer plans to raise prices as high as €680/mt in the short run.
On the import side, trading activity has remained weak due to ongoing challenges related to CBAM compliance and safeguard quotas. Meanwhile, the spread between import prices on CFR basis (excluding CBAM) and import offers on DDP basis (including CBAM-related costs) has widened to €80/mt. Indicative offers for import HRC have settled at €480-520/mt CFR, compared to €470-545/mt CFR last week.
Furthermore, market insiders have reported HRC import offers coming to the region including CBAM costs on DDP basis at €560-580/mt levels, depending on the supplier.