The global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has remained largely subdued this week, with limited buying interest and cautious sentiment prevailing across regions. In China, exporters have kept offers stable after returning from the long holiday, while HRC futures prices have fluctuated only slightly. Indian suppliers have softened their export prices in a bid to attract buyers in key outlets such as the Gulf and Vietnam, where trading activity has remained muted, and most suppliers have kept offers unchanged. In the UAE, buyers have turned to Indian HRC in China’s absence, but resistance to relatively high prices persisted. The Turkish market has adopted a wait-and-see approach, assessing price trends as China resumes activity, while demand in the EU has remained weak. At the same time, in Europe, uncertainty has been growing amid discussions over a new safeguard proposal and the implementation of CBAM, adding further turbulence to an already fragile market environment.
The Chinese HRC market has resumed activity this week after the National Day holiday that began on October 1, but trading has remained sluggish. Export prices for boron-added SS400 HRC from major Chinese mills are stable at $470–490/mt FOB, with the midpoint at $480/mt FOB, unchanged from ten days earlier. Sources noted that many mills have yet to update their offers. Smaller producers have voiced offers mostly at $465–470/mt CFR, compared with around $470/mt FOB in late September. Tradable levels for ex-China SS400/Q235 HRC are reported at $465–475/mt FOB, depending on destination, largely unchanged from before the holidays. At the same time, unusually for the post-holiday period, HRC futures have showed little movement amid weak sentiment and limited expectations for near-term improvement. As of October 10, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,285/mt ($463/mt), increasing by RMB 32/mt ($4.5/mt) or 1.0 percent since September 30, while rising by 0.37 percent compared to the previous trading day, October 9.
Ex-India HRC prices have edged down over the past week to stimulate sales in the Middle East, while remaining largely stable in Europe, where deals have been limited as buyers seek to avoid multiple import-related risks. In addition, offers to Vietnamese buyers have declined by about $10/mt, with Indian sellers aiming to secure more bookings. In particular, ex-India HRC offers in the Gulf have been reported in the range of $490-500/mt FOB, down from levels of $500-510/mt FOB as sellers have attempted to push sales leveraging the slight improvement in demand in the region, even though buyers have remained very price-sensitive. According to sources, several deals for ex-India SAE1006 HRC in the UAE for around 22,000-25,000 mt each have been signed at $515-520/mt CFR for end-of-November shipment, which translates to around $495-500/mt FOB, while another large mill completed a supply contract for 12,000 mt for delivery to Bahrain at around $490/mt FOB. Besides, offers for ex-India SAE1006 HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $505-510/mt CFR, or around $485-490/mt FOB, for November shipment, against $515-520/mt CFR last week, while HRC offers in Europe have remained at $555/mt FOB. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has moved to $485-555/mt FOB, down by $10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week.
Import trading activity in Vietnam has remained weak this week, as buying interest has remained limited. Chinese suppliers, who have returned from the long holiday, have not made any significant adjustments to their offers, while HRC futures prices have moved up only slightly. Offers for ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC, which are not targeted by AD duty, have been reported at $490-492/mt CFR, mainly the same since September 30. Other import prices for SAE1006 HRC have been estimated at $508-520/mt CFR, depending on the supplier, mainly the same as last week. The lower end of the range corresponds to ex-India HRC prices at $508-510/mt CFR, down by $2/mt on the lower end of range week on week while ex-Indonesia HRC offers have been voiced at $510/mt CFR level. Offers from Malaysia and Japan have been estimated at $515-520/mt CFR. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has moved to $508-510/mt CFR Vietnam, compared with $510/mt CFR last week.
Turkey’s HRC pricing has remained relatively stable over the past week with a slight tendency to soften in the domestic market, despite higher import scrap price levels in the latest deals. Particularly, official HRC offers locally for December deliveries have remained at $540-555/mt ex-works, but $535/mt CFR Marmara is already voiced as well. As regards exports, where the EU is still taking its time to digest the recently announced intention to adjust the safeguard taxes and quota volumes, on top of the CBAM-related uncertainties, the official export offers from Turkey have settled at $540-550/mt FOB levels, though discounts are considered possible.
Import offers from China have softened by around $5/mt to $497-503/mt CFR for Q195 quality, while offers for pipe-makers have remained at $525/mt CFR. Malaysia is at $545-550/mt CFR, while Egypt is offering at $545/mt CFR in line with the most recent sales.
Russian offers to Turkey are at $500-505/mt and up to $510/mt CFR for December shipments and for non-sanctioned material, down from $510-515/mt CFR in the previous round of sales. The sanctioned mill is targeting sales to the MENA region at $485/mt CFR or around $420-435/mt FOB Baltic Sea. In the Black Sea, the FOB price level for ex-Russia HRC has settled at $485-490/mt FOB, SteelOrbis understands.
In the domestic market in Russia, mills have decreased their offers significantly due to extremely slow business activities in the key consuming areas. Particularly, the new prices for November production HRS from mills are at RUB 55,000-56,000/mt CPT, down by RUB 4,000-5,000/mt over the past month, which in US dollars means a drop of $35-45/mt to $565-575/mt CPT.
In the UAE, import activity has remained mostly subdued this week. Although China returned to the market mid-week, buyers are adopting a cautious approach and are waiting to see how prices will develop. However, due to China’s absence from the market last week, buyers from the UAE and Bahrain needed to restock and turned to Indian suppliers by the end of that week. As a result, UAE buyers purchased approximately 20,000-25,000 mt, while Bahraini buyers booked around 12,000 mt of SAE1006 grade HRC at prices ranging from $510-520/mt CFR for end-of-November shipment. At present, Indian suppliers are offering SAE1006 HRC to the UAE at $515-525/mt CFR for November shipments. Meanwhile, Chinese suppliers, who re-entered the market mid-week, have kept their offers stable at $500-510/mt CFR for November shipments. On the other hand, no new offers have been heard from Japanese suppliers this week, although their previous offers stood at $510-515/mt CFR.
European HRC prices have remained mostly stable this week, as market players remained cautious after the European Commission (EC) proposed major changes to current steel import safeguards. Alongside the ongoing implementation of CBAM, sources described the market as being in a “state of turbulence” with many participants uncertain about future trade conditions. Given this situation, there are currently very few import offers for HRC, as both buyers and sellers adopt a wait-and-see approach. Local mills in northern Europe are reported to be targeting €600-610/mt ex-works for new orders for December deliveries, the same as last week, though the tradable price level has remained at €570-580/mt ex-works in the north of Europe, with a few market insiders reporting transactions at the abovementioned levels. Meanwhile, in Italy, indicative offers from mills have remained at €570-580/mt ex-works for November and December delivery, while the tradable price level has remained at €540-550/mt ex-works, with no sizable deals reported this week. Indicative offers for import HRC have been reported in the range of €500-530/mt CFR, depending on the origin. However, according to sources, no one is really in the import market right now because of the safeguard review. The last import offers were heard from Turkey at around €510–520/mt CFR, and from Indonesia at similar levels, but no orders were placed.