Stability has prevailed in the hot rolled coil (HRC) markets in several regions, though weaker Chinese momentum and muted demand globally has kept markets under pressure this week. In China, ex-mill HRC prices eased ahead of the long holiday, following a drop in futures prices that dented confidence. The softer outlook in the region weighed on sentiment across Asia, although Vietnam’s Hoa Phat kept its HRC offers unchanged despite worsening Chinese market conditions. Ex-India HRC prices have slipped slightly in the Gulf, while remaining largely stable in other destinations. In the Middle East, UAE buyers were selective, with import purchases limited as most end-users have preferred to wait for more attractive pricing. The Turkish flat steel markets have remained stable overall, though mills have been forced to grant discounts amid sluggish demand and weak support. In Europe, HRC prices have also remained stable, but the outlook is clouded by the uncertainty surrounding CBAM implementation and safeguard measures, which continues to temper demand and investment decisions.
Offers from both Chinese traders and smaller mills have shown at least a $10/mt decrease given the sluggish demand ahead of the eight-day public holiday (October 1-8) and the further declines observed in HRC and raw material futures prices in China, though export offers for Chinese HRC from big mills have remained relatively stable this week. Specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has remained stable at $470–490/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $480/mt FOB, mainly for November shipment. Meanwhile, offers from smaller mills have been voiced mainly at $470/mt CFR, down by $5-10/mt week on week. At the same time, offers from most Chinese traders have been voiced at $465-475/mt FOB, down by $10/mt week on week. Ex-China 2,000 mm Q235/SS400 HRC offers in Vietnam have been voiced at $490-494/mt CFR, against $500-503/mt CFR at the beginning of last week. Meanwhile, Chinese offers to other destinations like the Middle East have settled at $500-505/mt CFR UAE, down by $5/mt on the higher end of the range week on week. Besides, a deal for around 30,000 mt of ex-China S235JR HRC is reported to have been signed at $500/mt CFR UAE at the end of last week.
In Vietnam, local steel producer Hoa Phat Group has announced its new prices for local HRC for November shipment, maintaining them stable at VND 13,900/kg ($527/mt) CIF in northern and central Vietnam, and at VND 13,930/kg ($528/mt) CIF in the south as compared to prices announced in September, even despite the low-priced import offers from China coming to Vietnam. Meanwhile, offers for ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC, which are not targeted by AD duty, have been reported at $490-494/mt CFR, up by $1-4/mt since September 30 but down by $5-10/mt week on week. It is worth mentioning that on the last business day, September 30, before Chinese suppliers left the market for their long holiday (October 1–8), HRC futures prices dropped by RMB 87/mt ($12/mt) or 2.6 percent compared to September 23, exerting pressure on export prices and on the outlook for Chinese prices after the holiday. Other import prices for SAE1006 HRC have been estimated at $510-520/mt CFR, depending on the supplier, mainly the same as last week. The lower end of the range corresponds to ex-Indonesia HRC offers, while offers from Malaysia and India have been estimated at $515/mt CFR and $515-520/mt CFR, respectively. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has moved to $510/mt CFR Vietnam, compared with $507-510/mt CFR last week.
In India, HRC export prices have shown a slight downward bias over the past week in some trade destinations such as the Middle East. However, prices in other destinations have moved sideways. Specifically, ex-India HRC offers from mills have settled at around $500-510/mt FOB to the Middle East, down by $5/mt week on week, which translates to around $525-535/mt CFR UAE. Overall trade activity has remained weak, as most buyers are either pushing for further discounts or staying on the sidelines, uncertain about the short- and medium-term outlooks amid an extremely cautious global trade environment, while Indian sellers have refused to reduce prices any further so far. Meanwhile, most indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been estimated at $515-520/mt CFR, the same as last week, which means around $495-500/mt FOB in Vietnam. Furthermore, ex-India HRC offers in Europe have been voiced at $555/mt FOB, the same as last week, which translates to around $610/mt CFR, though no fresh deals have been reported so far.
In the UAE, no fresh import deals have been reported this week, as most buyers hold sufficient stocks and remain in no rush to make new purchases. Demand remains subdued, with buyers still pushing for lower prices. However, just before the start of China’s long holiday, some deals were concluded at lower levels. As a result, around 30,000-35,000 mt of HRC was sold from China to the UAE at $500/mt CFR for November shipment, while current Chinese offers remain stable at $500-510/mt CFR for the same period. Meanwhile, Indian suppliers have adopted a more aggressive pricing approach to stimulate sales, lowering their offers to $515-525/mt CFR, down from $525-535/mt CFR last week. Despite the price cuts, no deals have been concluded so far. On the other hand, Japanese and Taiwanese suppliers have kept their offers unchanged at $510-515/mt CFR and $500-505/mt CFR, respectively, for November shipments.
In Turkey, local HRC prices have remained at $540-555/mt ex-works base for November deliveries, and similar levels are available in official export offers as well. Buyers believe $530-535/mt ex-works/FOB levels are valid for large orders in both segments, despite a slight rebound in import scrap price levels. In the EU, business is on the slow side mainly due to the uncertainties surrounding CBAM regulations and also the EU’s recently announced intention to adjust the quota system in response to the US protectionist measures. This could significantly affect imports into the EU and currently the risks for importers are at their highest in the second half of the year.
Import offers from China are at $505/ mt CFR, being indicative due to the holiday period, with the latest deal closed at $508/mt CFR last week. Offers from other Asian countries are in a rather wide range - $530/mt CFR from Japan, $550/mt CFR from Malaysia, and $560-570/mt CFR from South Korea. Offers from Russia are reported at $500-510/mt CFR for non-sanctioned material and at $480-485/mt CFR for sanctioned material.
European HRC demand has remained subdued over the past week as buyers have been holding back from new purchases, citing regulatory uncertainty and adequate stock levels. Local mills in northern Europe are reported to be targeting €600-610/mt ex-works for new orders for November and December deliveries, compared to €600-630/mt ex-works last week, though the tradable price level has remained at €570-580/mt ex-works levels in the north, with a few market insiders reporting transactions at below €570/mt. Meanwhile, HRC offers from Italian mills have remained at €570-580/mt ex-works for November delivery, while the tradable price level has remained €540-550/mt ex-works in Italy, with no sizable deals reported this week. At the same time, the import market has also slowed sharply. Buyers have kept avoiding Asian origin HRC, wary of potential costs and obligations linked to the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Indicative offers for import HRC have been reported in the range of €500-530/mt CFR, depending on the origin, down by €10/mt week on week. The lower end of the range corresponds to ex-Indonesia HRC offers in southern Europe, which have been voiced at €500/mt CFR, against 505-515/mt CFR last week, but, according to sources, offers at €490/mt CFR and below could still be possible for large-volume orders. Ex-Turkey HRC offers have been voiced at €520-530/mt CFR, duty paid, down by €10/mt on the higher end of the range week on week. Furthermore, ex-India HRC offers have settled at €520-530/mt CFR for November shipment, which means CBAM will surely apply, so no one will take this risk. According to sources, with new safeguard regulation shifts looming and CBAM obligations still unclear, buyers are adopting a cautious stance, leaving mills under pressure to secure orders and the import market largely on hold.