The global hot rolled coil (HRC) market has shown a notable upward trend, driven largely by rising Chinese spot and futures prices. China has remained the main driver, with export offers increasing on the back of a strong futures rally and higher production costs. This created a ripple effect across several major import markets. India's HRC export activity has stalled as the surge in Chinese prices prompted Indian suppliers to reassess their strategies and wait for clearer signals. In Vietnam, import offers have climbed in response to China's price rally, while Pakistan has also seen higher import prices for HRC, tracking the same upward momentum. In the meantime, Europe has seen a slight price rebound as ArcelorMittal raised offers, supported by improved sentiment tied to the CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism). In Turkey, both local and import prices edged up, but demand remained subdued despite the price recovery. Meanwhile, Emirati buyers continued to rely on imports, although ex-China offers became more expensive.
Ex-China hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have seen a sharp upward shift this week, driven by a strong rally in China's steel and raw material markets. Investor sentiment surged amid expectations of extended production curbs - particularly in the coke sector - fueling rapid gains in both futures and physical markets. Export offers for boron-added SS400 HRC from major Chinese mills have increased to $475-490/mt FOB, up $17.5/mt week on week. Smaller mills and non-VAT sellers have followed suit, pushing their prices to $465-475/mt FOB. Tradable ex-China HRC prices have increased to $465-475/mt FOB, compared to $445-460/mt last week. Q235 HRC was offered at $485-486/mt CFR, up from $465/mt CFR. In Turkey, Q195 HRC offers have climbed to $490-503/mt CFR, while in the UAE ex-China offers rose to $495-505/mt CFR, though some sellers still voiced lower levels at $485/mt CFR. Domestically in China, average HRC prices have continued to rise alongside strong futures gains. With raw material prices at eight-month highs and a broader supply-side tightening expected, market sentiment has remained bullish.
Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) export prices have remained largely stable this week, but trading activity has stalled as buyers adopted a cautious stance amid mixed global signals. Prices remained at $480-500/mt FOB for the Middle East and $540-550/mt FOB for Europe, with no reported deals. While European market conditions have shown some signs of stabilization, they have not yet spurred renewed import interest. The recent sharp rise in ex-China HRC prices has added uncertainty, prompting Indian mills to reassess their export strategies. As Chinese offers approach Indian price levels, the previously wide price gap is narrowing, raising hopes of improved export competitiveness, particularly in Asia and the Middle East. For now, Indian suppliers are in wait-and-see mode, closely monitoring China's pricing trend to determine whether a clearer global price floor will emerge.
Import offers for hot rolled coil (HRC) in Vietnam have risen sharply this week, driven by a strong rally in Chinese futures and expectations of production cuts. Chinese suppliers increased offers by $15-20/mt, with Q235 HRC quoted at $486-488/mt CFR, up from $463-465/mt last week. Offers for Q195 and SAE1006 grades have climbed to $495-505/mt CFR. The rise has followed a notable increase in Chinese HRC futures, which reached RMB 3,438/mt ($481.5/mt) by July 23, up RMB 185/mt ($26/mt) from a week earlier. Other suppliers have been slower to react, with ex-South Korea SAE1006 HRC sold at $487-490/mt CFR, with new offers at $500–510/mt CFR, while ex-Japan offers remained stable at $510-515/mt CFR. Meanwhile, ex-Indonesia offers rose slightly to $505/mt CFR. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for imported SAE1006 HRC has moved to $500-505/mt CFR, from $485-500/mt CFR last week.
European hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have moved modestly higher this week, led by ArcelorMittal’s decision to raise domestic offers by €30/mt, reflecting growing confidence tied to the upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and expectations of new trade measures once current safeguards expire. Following ArcelorMittal’s lead, other European mills attempted smaller hikes of €10-20/mt, pushing local offers to €560-580/mt ex-works for September-October delivery, while tradable prices settled around €540-550/mt. In Italy, offers have increased to €540-550/mt, with workable levels improving to €525-530/mt, up from last week's €510-525/mt. Despite these increases, market sentiment has remained mixed. Real consumption has continued to lag, and many buyers have remained hesitant, viewing the current uptrend as driven more by policy expectations than by an actual demand recovery. Meanwhile, import offers into southern Europe have remained mostly stable at €450-500/mt CFR, depending on the supplier, and while domestic mills push for higher pricing, uncertainty over near-term demand and the true impact of CBAM continues to cloud the market outlook. With September order books nearly closed, mills are now cautiously testing the waters for October, though whether buyers will accept the higher levels remains to be seen.
In Turkey, Chinese HRC offers have surged over the past week from $475-483/mt CFR to $495-505/mt CFR seen currently in the indications for September shipments. No interest is seen among Turkish buyers due to the unstable market trend and long lead times, and so most importers prefer to wait. Instead, there has been a 6,000 mt deal for HRC from Egypt at $540/mt CFR, in line with the initial offers for September shipments. HRC offers from Russia for September production have been placed at $480/mt CFR for the sanctioned material and $500-505/mt CFR. As a result, ex-Russia HRC is up around $20-25/mt from the previous round of sales.
The domestic HRC prices in Turkey are now up $5-10/mt to $550-560/mt ex-works in the official offers for September deliveries, with some restocking made at $550-555/mt ex-works. Still, bids for larger volumes are more at $540-545/mt ex-works, but the mills are resisting such levels, at least for now. Export indications are evaluated at $530-540/mt FOB with minor discounts still possible, SteelOrbis understands.
Russian mills are aiming to increase their export prices for September shipment HRC, supported by the recent uptrend in China. Particularly, some of the buyers, mainly in Turkey and North Africa, might find buying from Russia currently more attractive than from China, taking into an account a shorter lead time and the possibility to purchase in smaller lots. In addition, the export allocation for September from Russia will be limited since one of the mills will stop its major rolling line for maintenance in early September. As a result, currently, non-sanctioned HRC is offered to Turkey at $500-505/mt CFR, up from $485/mt CFR in the August round of sales, while the non-sanctioned one is at $480/mt CFR, up from earlier offers at $460/mt CFR. In addition, a medium-sized lot of the sanctioned material has been sold to North Africa at $470/mt CFR. As a result, the FOB indication from Russia for HRC is now at around $480/mt, while in the Baltic region it is at $430-440/mt, SteelOrbis estimates.