Global hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have shown mixed dynamics this week, with most Asian markets under downward pressure, while Europe saw the expected start of a price recovery. Ex-China HRC prices have fallen amid weak demand, sliding futures, and persistently high inventories, prompting Chinese mills to reduce export offers further. This weakness has also weighed on regional markets. Indian exporters have continued to face mounting pressure as overseas bids have remained low and the uncertainty surrounding the EU safeguard measures limited booking activity. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s import market saw fresh bookings at lower levels, though local producer Formosa Ha Tinh Steel (FHS) has kept its domestic HRC list prices largely unchanged. Pakistan’s import prices have also softened on the back of weaker ex-China offers, while ex-Japan levels remained stable. In Turkey, import HRC prices have declined further as Chinese suppliers have reintroduced competitive non-VAT offers, heightening market pressure, while, in the UAE, buyers have shown preference for Japanese and Taiwanese coils, while low-priced Russian offers have added to the already intense competition. In contrast, European HRC prices have inched higher, in line with expectations, as mills attempted to pass through cost increases and rebuild margins.
Ex-China hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have edged lower this week, with both mills and traders cutting offers in an effort to stimulate buying interest. Specifically, offers for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills have settled at $465-480/mt FOB, compared to $470-485/mt FOB and the beginning of the week and down by $7.5/mt on average week on week. Meanwhile, offers from smaller mills have been voiced mainly at $460-470/mt CFR, down by $5/mt on the lower end of the range since last week. At the same time, offers from most Chinese traders have been voiced at $460-470/mt FOB, down by $5/mt week on week, while, according to sources, by the end of the week offers from non-VAT traders have been voiced at as low as $445-450/mt FOB, versus $455/mt FOB at the beginning of the week. Some traders have been able to conclude limited sales, particularly to Asian destinations such as Vietnam, by offering discounted prices. The downward movement has been driven by weaker domestic HRC prices and further declines in futures, which lately hit a three-month low. According to sources, leading mills may revise their base prices next week while the Chinese market is likely to remain under pressure from high production levels and growing inventories, which are also weighing on export activity. Any potential support in the near term is likely to come only from cost factors or policy measures.
Ex-India HRC offer prices have been largely unchanged over the past week, though market sources have pointed to unconfirmed deals in Vietnam and Europe concluded at discounted prices, suggesting growing pressure on Indian mills to maintain sales momentum. Specifically, ex-India HRC offers have remained unchanged at $490-500/mt FOB in the Middle East, but bids received were at lows of $480-485/mt FOB, which unlike earlier weeks did not find acceptance among sellers. Meanwhile, ex-India offers in Europe have been heard at $545-550/mt FOB, compared to $555/mt FOB last week, but, according to sources, a deal for 10,000 mt of ex-India HRC has been signed in Spain at $590/mt CFR for delivery in December, which translates to around $540/mt FOB. At the same time, talk about a deal for around 30,000 mt of ex-India HRC signed at $495-498/mt CFR Vietnam has been circulating in the market this week, but, according to sources, this deal has been signed through one of the major Chinese trading companies. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has dropped to $480-550/mt FOB, down by $5/mt week on week.
In Vietnam, although the general mood in the import HRC segment has been far from positive this week and local demand for steel in Vietnam has remained weak, Vietnamese steel producer FHS has announced its new local HRC prices for November and December shipments at $522-532/mt CIF, depending on size of the order, mostly at the same levels as in September or only $3-4/mt higher. The new prices are viewed by most local buyers as slightly overpriced given the recent drop in ex-China HRC offers and more competitive offers from other Asian suppliers, but they also give hope for some recovery in import prices this month. Meanwhile, offers for ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC, which are not targeted by AD duty, have been reported at $480/mt CFR, compared to $483-485/mt CFR early this week for December shipment and compared to $490-492/mt CFR last week. Other import prices for SAE1006 HRC have been estimated at $508-515/mt CFR, depending on the supplier. The lower end of the range corresponds to ex-Indonesia HRC deal prices at $508/mt CFR for around 5,000-10,000 mt booked last week, while the higher end corresponds to offers from Malaysia and Japan. At the same time, market chatter emerged about a deal for around 30,000 mt of ex-India HRC reportedly concluded at $495-498/mt CFR Vietnam through a Chinese trader. Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for import SAE1006 HRC has moved to $495-500/mt CFR Vietnam, compared with $505-508/mt CFR at the beginning of this week.
Local HRC prices in Turkey have been maintained at $535-550/mt ex-works for a couple of weeks now, considering continuing domestic trade, though with limited volumes daily. As for exports, Turkey’s HRC is hovering around $535-550/mt FOB depending on the mill, while market participants are mainly aiming to gain come clarity on business conditions in the European market.
In the import segment, non-VAT HRC offers reappeared from China in the Turkish market, moving down within the week from $482-483/mt CFR to $474-475/mt CFR as of Friday. Buyers, however, believe the real levels will be seen early in the new week. The regular HRC offers from China and from the main sellers are at $485-490/mt CFR for re-rollers and $512-515/mt CFR for pipe-makers. Taiwan is in the market with $515-516/mt CFR for full cargo lots, while Japanese indications are at $520-525/mt CFR, received from one of the mills. Ex-Vietnam offers are almost in line with ex-Malaysia indications at $545-550/mt CFR with no new deals reported.
In the meantime, ex-Russian non-sanctioned HRC offers have slid from $505/mt CFR to $495-500/mt CFR with bids being $10/mt lower or so, but deals are expected shortly in Turkey. The sanctioned Russian supplier prefers to deal with alternative MENA destinations where higher prices might be achieved. In particular, indications of $475-480/mt CFR have been heard in the GCC region, while in North Africa sources have reported levels of $465-475/mt CFR and up to $480-485/mt CFR depending on the buyer and the breakdown. As a result, ex-Baltic Sea FOB indications from Russia are evaluated at $415-425/mt, while from the Black Sea the levels are at $470-480/mt FOB.
In the UAE, while activity continued to be seen in the HRC import segment, particularly for Japanese and Taiwanese materials, fresh deals have been postponed this week amid decreasing offers from Chinese suppliers and aggressive pricing from Russian mills. According to sources, Japanese and Taiwanese HRC was sold in significant volumes late last week at $510-515/mt CFR for end-of-November shipment. Meanwhile, Chinese suppliers, who began the week with offers at $500-510/mt CFR, started lowering prices mid-week, with current offers heard in the range of $495-505/mt CFR for end-of-November and December shipments, though no new deals have been finalized. Russian suppliers have returned to the market with aggressive pricing, offering the lowest rates at $480-485/mt CFR for December shipment. While no deals have been confirmed yet, transactions are expected in the coming days. Indian suppliers, who had earlier sold substantial volumes in the absence of Chinese competition, remain quiet with offers stable at $515-525/mt CFR for November and December shipments.
Hot rolled coil (HRC) prices in Europe have strengthened this week as leading European producer ArcelorMittal introduced higher offers for deliveries in late December and January. Specifically, ArcelorMittal has raised its offers by at least €30/mt, now quoting €630/mt for December and €650/mt for January, ex-works or delivered. However, market participants noted that these levels mirror the prices the producer had announced last month but was unable to implement at the time. Meanwhile, other local mills in northern Europe are reported to be targeting €610-630/mt ex-works for new orders for December deliveries, up by €10-20/mt week on week, while some even target €640/mt ex-works for delivery in January. However, the tradable price levels have been estimated at €580-590/mt ex-works in the north of Europe, up by €10/mt week on week. In Italy, indicative HRC offers from mills have remained at €590-610/mt ex-works for December delivery, against €570-580/mt ex-works for November and December delivery last week, while the tradable price level has settled at €560-580/mt ex-works levels, up by €20-30/mt since last week. The import market for HRC in Europe has remained extremely weak as buyers continue to refrain from placing new import orders amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding CBAM compliance and EU safeguard regulations. Indicative offer prices for import HRC have been estimated at €505-550/mt CFR, up by €5-10/mt on the lower end of the range week on week. However, higher offers for ex-Asia HRC for delivery in the first quarter of 2026, for ex-Thailand in particular, at around €570/mt CFR southern Europe have started to appear in the market including CBAM costs. Besides, talk about a deal for around 10,000 mt of ex-India HRC signed at $590 CFR Spain, or around €505/mt CFR for delivery in December, has been circulating in the market this week. At the same time, offers for ex-India HRC without CBAM have been voiced at $575/mt CFR, or around €490/mt CFR, “but we should add at least €60/mt of CBAM to this price,” according to sources. Offers for ex-Turkey HRC have been estimated at €540-550/mt CFR, including duty and CBAM costs.