While price increases during March remained relatively moderate, near the end of March ex-Japan HRC prices have risen sharply across all key export destinations, driven by a broader global bullish trend and increasing freight costs. At the same time, Japanese exporters have faced mounting challenges: having already largely lost access to the EU market due to protective measures, they have also been forced to suspend sales to the Middle East due to the war, with no clear outlook for when conditions may improve.
More specifically, prices of ex-Japan SAE1006 HRC for the Asian region have settled at $535-550/mt CFR in late March, versus $510-520/mt CFR in late February. In Vietnam, offers for ex-Japan HRC have been voiced at around $535-545/mt CFR, compared to $510-515/mt CFR in late February. Nevertheless, the increased new offers are considered to be competitive, being in line with those coming from India.
At the same time, while last week offers for ex-Japan HRC in Pakistan were reported at $530/mt CFR, this week new offers have settled at $550/mt CFR in late March, up by $40/mt since late February. “This offer is an initial one and most customers will try to negotiate and push for discounts,” a Pakistani trader told SteelOrbis. Furthermore, offers for ex-Japan HRC in Bangladesh have been reported at around $540-545/mt CFR levels, compared to $510-520/mt CFR in the previous month.
In the Middle East, Japanese suppliers effectively withdrew from the market this month, suspending both offers and sales amid the ongoing conflict. The escalation of the war has disrupted trade flows across the region, prompting not only Japanese mills but also other global suppliers to step back due to heightened risks and uncertainty. As a result, market activity has largely stalled, with no clear timeline for a recovery.
Meanwhile, Japanese steel suppliers remain absent from the European market as well due to persistent trade restrictions. The region has become even less accessible following the implementation of CBAM and revised safeguard duties. According to sources, the latest indicative offers for ex-Asia HRC, including from Japan, in southern Europe are currently quoted through traders at above €680-700/mt DDP, up by €40-60/mt since late February, inclusive of CBAM costs.