Over the past week, Indian HRC exporters have once again adjusted their offer levels in the Middle East to stimulate sales, with current offers broadly in line with last week’s deal prices heard in the UAE, resulting in modest sales. Similarly, in Vietnam, offer prices have declined to levels matching deals concluded last week, keeping the market the lowest-priced among key destinations. In contrast, offers to the EU have remained unchanged, with trade activity stalled due to CBAM-related risks and safeguard quota concerns. As the year-end approaches, Indian export trade activity is expected to slow, while the New Year is likely to introduce new market dynamics, prompting both buyers and sellers to adopt a wait-and-see approach.
Specifically, ex-India HRC offers in the Middle East have been voiced at $470-480/mt FOB, compared to $480/mt FOB last week. Slower prices have been explained by sellers’ aim to drive sales and match the discount demands of buyers even for relatively small volumes. As a result, according to the sources, an eastern India-based integrated mill has reported a booking of 15,000 mt for delivery to Qatar at around $470-473/mt FOB. Similarly, another large mill has concluded a trade for 20,000 mt for delivery to the UAE at around $470/mt FOB, which translates to around $495/mt CFR, down by $3/mt from deal prices last week. However, at least two sources in trade circles claimed that the final invoice price was slightly lower, net of additional discount.
Furthermore, following several deals for big volumes signed for ex-India HRC in Vietnam at $475-482/mt CFR levels during the past two weeks, this week indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $475/mt CFR, which translates to around $455/mt FOB.
Meanwhile in Europe, Indian sellers have maintained indicative offers at around $520/mt FOB, but trade has continued to be stalled by the exhaustion of quotas for the October-December quarter and non-tariff deals are also at a standstill with buyers unwilling to face the uncertainties of the carbon border adjustment mechanism.
“While the Middle East market is expected to remain moderately active but highly price-sensitive, Indian export trade activity is likely to slow toward the year-end. The New Year is expected to bring new market dynamics, with both buyers and sellers adopting a wait-and-see approach until then,” a Tata Steel Limited affiliate told SteelOrbis.
“We are hearing about the government considering new export incentives for key sectors including steel. We are expecting better terms under the Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP). This will help steel exporters to improve competitiveness. This can be an important consideration when mills fix export allocations for the January-March quarter,” he added.
As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has remained at $455-520/mt FOB, the same as last week.
