Most ex-India HRC offers have remained stable during the past week across key trade destinations such as the Middle East and Europe. Trading activity has been very limited, with Middle Eastern buyers largely absent due to holidays, while European customers continue to avoid new bookings because of CBAM-related risks that few are willing to assume. However, lower offers have begun to surface in Vietnam, accompanied by market rumors of deals concluded at reduced price levels, though these reports have not yet been confirmed.
Specifically, ex-India HRC offers in the Middle East have remained mainly unchanged in the range of $480-490/mt FOB, while trade activity this week has been close to zero in the region due to holidays. According to sources, market chatter suggests that at least two sellers submitted higher offers at $500-510/mt FOB, but only a few small-volume deals were concluded at lower levels, indicating that the market was not yet ready to accept higher prices. In particular, sources noted that a 10,000 mt trade for delivery to Muscat is reported to have been finalized at $475-480/mt FOB last week, though this information had not been confirmed by the time of publication. It was pointed out that buying interest in the Gulf has been muted and small deals were working out only if sellers offered discounts and attempts by a few to seek higher margins were “not workable”.
Meanwhile, in Europe ex-India HRC offers have been estimated at $520/mt FOB and above, the same as last week, which translates to around $575/mt CFR, but buyers have remained cautious owing to weak demand and have preferred to avoid risks of trade barriers including the impending carbon tax.
“We do not see much activity in Europe owing to uncertainties relating to tariff and non-tariff trade barriers. The Middle East will remain the focus of Indian sellers. But it is a very price-sensitive market and discounting levels will determine if deals go through,” an affiliate of Tata Steel Limited told SteelOrbis.
Furthermore, indicative offers for ex-India HRC in Vietnam have been voiced at $485-490/mt CFR, comparted to $485-500/mt CFR last week, mainly the same as last week. Besides, talk about a deal signed for ex-India HRC through a Chinese trader at $480-482/mt CFR Vietnam for January shipment has been circulating in the market, but no official confirmation has been provided by the time of publication.
As a result, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has moved to $465-520/mt FOB, down by $15/mt on the lower end of the range due to the lower prices for Indian coils reported in Vietnam.
