Ex-India hot rolled coil (HRC) offer prices have remained relatively stable over the past week, with trading activity in Europe subdued due to the traditional summer lull. At the same time, this week a deal for ex-India HRC has been concluded in the Gulf region at a slight discount, though most market sources noted that both buyers and sellers remain cautious and uncertain about the outlook amid shifting tariff policies and persistent demand-side challenges.
Sources said that ex-India HRC offer prices have been voiced at $505-515/mt FOB in offers to the Middle East against $510-520/mt FOB last week. However, according to sources, although demand has remained moderate in the region, at least 20,000-25,000 mt of ex-India SAE1006 HRC is reported to have been sold to the UAE this week at $525-530/mt CFR, for October shipment, which translates to around $500-505/mt FOB. Meanwhile, most offers have been estimated at $530-540/mt CFR UAE, down by $10/mt week on week.
Offers to Europe have been assessed at $545-550/mt FOB, unchanged from the previous week. The levels reflect optimism for stronger trade activity after the summer break and EU mills’ attempts to lift local prices, but the sentiments have not been supported by any concluded deals over the past week.
Thus, the SteelOrbis reference price for ex-India SAE1006 HRC has settled at $500-550/mt FOB, down by $10/mt on the lower end of the range over the past week.
“With domestic demand poised to improve and recent price hikes by EU mills seemingly absorbed, domestic sales will remain the focus of producers,” an official at Jindal Steel Limited told SteelOrbis.
“Overseas sales are dogged by dual challenges of tariffs and demand. Prices are hardening in key markets like Europe, but it is still not enough to prompt intermediaries to look at imports as demand growth is uncertain. Every point in the global supply chain is still unsure of how tariff changes will cause changes in global trade flows and the extent of trade diversions if any. These are tough moving targets for market participants to anticipate and conclude deals,” he added.
Another official at a trading firm maintained that global flat product prices are stabilizing as a result of production cutbacks in China and low business activity in Europe during the summer holidays and not so much demand support.
“Hence, Indian mills are under no pressure to adjust export prices in a hurry. Indications for a new trend will emerge once October delivery bookings commence in another few weeks. But our assessment is that Indian mills will keep export allocations on the very low side as domestic sales will be stable,” another source told SteelOrbis.