Ex-China hot rolled coil (HRC) prices have rolled back from last week, mirroring the correction in the domestic market as concerns over demand strength halted the previous week’s HRC price rally in China. At the same time, market sentiment has eased under broader macroeconomic pressures and continued expectations of output cuts tied to environmental restrictions in Tangshan, the country’s major steelmaking hub.
Specifically, the price range for boron-added SS400 HRC from large Chinese mills has been estimated at $465-480/mt FOB, with a midpoint at $472.5/mt FOB, mainly for December shipment, down by $5/mt week on week. Meanwhile, offers from smaller mills have been voiced mainly at $460-470/mt CFR, down by $5/mt since last week.
At the same time, offers from most Chinese traders have moved to $460-465/mt FOB compared to $470/mt FOB and above, while, according to sources, offers from non-VAT traders have been voiced at as low as $450/mt FOB, and some at even $445/mt FOB.
In particular, ex-China 2,000 mm Q235 HRC offers in Vietnam have been voiced at $480-485/mt CFR, down by $5-7/mt week on week. Besides, several deals for ex-China Q195 HRC have been signed at $452/mt CFR Vietnam this week. Furthermore, Chinese suppliers have been offering December shipment Q195 HRC at $450/mt CFR Pakistan, while offers for November shipment have been heard at $458/mt CFR, respectively.
Meanwhile, Chinese offers for SS400 HRC to other destinations like the Middle East have settled at $485-495/mt CFR UAE from traders, compared to $500/mt CFR last week, while big Chinese mills are reported to be offering their coils at $505/mt CFR and above. According to market insiders, a deal for around 30,000 mt of ex-China HRC is reported to have been signed at $490/mt CFR Saudi Arabia last week.
Besides, Chinese Q195 HRC offers to Turkey have been estimated at $490-500/mt CFR from Chinese suppliers with VAT. However, offers from non-VAT Chinese sellers have been estimated at around $480-485/mt CFR, compared to $485/mt CFR last week.
In the meantime, average HRC prices in the Chinese domestic market have edged down compared to the previous week amid decreasing HRC futures prices. In particular, domestic HRC prices in China have settled at RMB 3,350-3,440/mt ($472-484.5/mt) ex-warehouse on November 4, with the average price level RMB 13/mt ($8.0/mt) lower compared to that recorded on October 28, according to SteelOrbis’ data.
During the given week, HRC prices in the Chinese domestic market have edged down as the market is entering the traditional offseason in November. It will be hard for apparent consumption to rebound in the future, which will exert a negative impact on HRC prices. Cautious sentiments have prevailed among market players, and so traders have been willing to sell at lower prices, aiming to reduce inventories and avoid potential risks. It is thought that HRC prices in the Chinese domestic market will soften in the coming week.
As of November 4, HRC futures at Shanghai Futures Exchange are standing at RMB 3,265/mt ($460/mt), decreasing by RMB 40/mt ($12.1/mt) or 1.2 percent since October 28, while declining by 1.03 percent compared to the previous trading day, November 3.
| Product | Spec | Quality | City | Origin | Price（RMB/mt） | W-o-w change |
| HRC | 5.75mm*1500*C | Q235B/SS400 | Shanghai | Angang | 3,440 | -20 |
| Tianjin | Baotou Steel | 3,350 | -10 | |||
| Lecong | Liuzhou Steel | 3,420 | -10 | |||
| Avg | 3,404 | -13 | ||||
| HRC | 2.75mm*1250*C | Q235B | Shanghai | Angang | 3,550 | -20 |
| Tianjin | Baotou Steel | 3,410 | -10 | |||
| Lecong | Angang | 3,500 | -10 | |||
| Avg | 3,487 | -13 |
$1 = RMB 7.0885