General: Economic recovery in the US continues to be very uneven. Despite the impressive growth rate during the last quarter of 2009, there are continuing signs that it might not be sustainable as housing starts and automotive production still are at historically low levels. Federal, state and local budgets are strained and don’t leave any room for vital investments; financial markets are getting increasingly nervous about California’s possible default on its debts; and bank lending continues to fall and it is not only because of the stricter loan guidelines (banks continue to report a distinct lack of demand for loans). At the beginning of the year, total loans outstanding stood at its lowest level in 67 years. Furthermore, the number of US banks at risk of failing has reached a 16-year high of 702.
GDP: +5.9% Q4 2009 from Q3 or 0.2 percentage points more than the advance number. Compared to Q4 2008 GDP increased +0.1%.
Consumer Prices: +2.6% January (zero percent a year ago)
Consumer Confidence: 46.0 in February, a sharp decline from January’s 56.5
Industrial Production: +0.9% in January for the past 12 months and the same +0.9% compared to December
Producer Prices: +4.6% January from a year ago; +1.7% compared to December
Unemployment: 9.7% January
Trade Deficit: -$40.2 billion in December, up from - $6.4 billion in November; $523.9 billion for the past 12 months
Currency: 0.73 Euro to 1 US$ as of February 26 (0.70 a year ago)
Housing: Housing starts in January increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591,000 units. This is +2.8% higher than the revised December rate and +21.1% above last year. Housing permits fell -4.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 621,000 units. This is -4.9% below the revised December rate and +16.9% above January 2009. Existing home sales in January dropped -7.2% from December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million units. This is +11.5% above January 2009. The national median existing-home price for all types was $ 164,700 in January – unchanged from last year. Total housing inventory at the end of January fell to 3.27million units, representing a 7.8 month supply at the current sales rate. The unsold inventory was -9.6% below last year and at the lowest level since March 2006
Automotive Industry: 576,394 units were produced in January or +103.4% more than last year. In January 698,346 units of light vehicles were sold. This is +6.3% over last year. General Motors sold a total of 145,804 vehicles (+14.6%), Ford 112,149 (+24.4%), Chrysler 57,143 (-8.1%) and embattled Toyota 98,796 (-15.8%).
Steel Production: 6.075 million metric tons in January or +48.8% more than last year.
Purchasing Managers’ Index: According to the Institute for Supply Management the PMI rose to 58.4 in January, up from 54.9 in December and at its highest reading since August 2004. It is the sixth consecutive month of growth and the rate of change is faster.
Other data in that report are as follows:
New Orders: 65.9 (64.8 December) – trend is “growing” for the seventh straight month
Production: 66.2 (59.7) – “growing” for the eighth consecutive month
Inventories: 46.5 (43.0) – “contracting” for the 45th consecutive month
Customers’ Inventories: 32.0 (35.0) – “too low”
Manufacturing Sector: “growing” for the sixth straight month
Overall Economy: “growing” for the ninth straight month