Mexico: As if the present economic conditions were not bad enough, the government estimates at this point that the imminent swine flu pandemic will take off another half-percent of the country's GDP in 2009. According to government forecasts the Mexican economy will shrink this year by 2.3% without taking the flu into consideration. Car and steel production are severely off and the inflation rate stubbornly remains around six percent. But there are glimmers of hope. March saw an unexpected trade surplus of US$160 million. Daimler opened a new truck plant in February and Isuzu Motors and Bridgestone have announced plans to build or expand production facilities in Mexico later this year. President Calderon has committed himself to passing an infrastructure package of $40bn over three years.
Canada: Bank of Canada officials now predict an economic decline of three percent for the year, sharply higher than the 1.2% predicted in January. At the same time BoC slashed the benchmark lending rate to a record low 0.25% and announced it will keep this rate for at least a year. GDP in January fell 0.7% for the month. The worst impact came from the manufacturing sector with a 11.9% fall, declining for the sixth consecutive month. Durable Goods tumbled 15.8% in January. The Canadian dollar continues its fall compared to the USD. Experts predict a comeback of sorts for the “loonie” as energy prices start to rise again.
Intra-NAFTA Steel Shipments: The latest published numbers as of January 2009 show the full onslaught of the recession that had its origin in the US and has spread to its NAFTA partners. Intra-NAFTA steel shipments in January 2009 were down 49.5% compared to January 2008. The decline was worst in the US with 55.4%. Canadian Intra-NAFTA steel shipments fell 46.1% and Mexico's shipments were down 36.9%.
General Data:
|
| GDP | Consumer Price Index (and last year) | Industrial Production | Unemployment | Trade Balance past 12 months | Currency as of April 29 (and last year) |
| -1.6%, Q4
| +6.0%, Mar (+4.3%) | -13.2%, Feb | 4.8%, Mar | -$17.2bn, Mar | 13.70 (10.50) | |
| -2.4%, Jan | +1.2%, Mar (1.4%) | -7.8%, Jan | 8.0%, Mar | +$37.1bn, Feb | 1.20 (1.01) |
Automotive and Steel Production
|
| Total Units March | + - 2008 | Units Year-to-date | + - 2008 | Steel Prod, March, 000/MT | + - 2008 | Year-to-date, 000/MT | +- 2008 |
| 113,376 | -27.9% | 301,649 | -40.7% | 800 (e) | -51.2% | 2,423 | -49.1% | |
| 120,578 | -34.6% | 283,850 | -48.9% | 640 (e) | -55.0% | 1,870 | -55.4% |
Total Intra NAFTA Steel Shipments Jan 2008-Jan 2009 in Thousand Metric Tons
|
| Ttl Intra NAFTA | From US | From Mexico | From Canada |
| 5,947 | 5,796 | 95 | - | |
| 4,001 | 3,519 | - | 482 | |
| US | 9,836 | - | 3,038 | 6,799 |