General: These days, Mexican officials are nervously watching economic developments north of their border. Almost 85 percent of Mexico's exports are destined to the US, and any recession there could have grave consequences for Mexico as well. Despite an increase in January's unemployment numbers, Mexico seems to be unaffected by the downturn in the US. At least, this is the impression so far, borne out by an unexpectedly strong economic growth in Q4. The Central Bank left the benchmark interest rate untouched at 7.5 percent for the fourth consecutive month.
GDP: +3.8% in Q4 compared to the previous year. For 2008, the Central Bank forecasts a growth rate of 2.75 - 3.25%
Consumer Prices: +3.7% in January (4.0% a year ago). This is barely within the target range of 3% plus/minus 1% the Central Bank is aiming for. The core inflation was a mere 0.4%.
Industrial Production: +1.3% in December, a disappointingly low figure
Unemployment: 4.1% in January
Trade Balance: -$11.2 billion at end of December for the latest 12 months. In 2007, the Mexico/US trade volume was $347 billion and Mexico had a surplus of $74.2 billion.
Automotive Industry: A total of 170,995 units were built in January, or 21.4% more than last year. Following the trend in the US and Canada, the medium/heavy truck segment went down 18.8% compared to January 2007. Light trucks and cars went up 53.3%(!) and 9.2% respectively.
Steel Production: 1.6 million metric tons (e) in January, or 5.0% ahead of last year
Currency: Peso 10.8 to US$1 as of February 20 (Peso 11.0 to US$1 a year ago)
Special Focus: Foreign direct investments (FDI) grew an impressive 23 percent last year to $23.2 billion. Half of these investments went into the manufacturing sector and 33% to the service industry. US companies accounted for 47% of foreign investments. Still, this record high FDI was trumped by remittances worth $23.7 billion, which Mexican workers sent from abroad last year. Since it came mostly from the US, it could be called the "near abroad."
GDP: +2.7% in November over November 2006. The monthly growth over October was 0.1%.
Consumer Prices: +2.2% in January (1.1% a year ago)
Industrial Production: +0.7% in November
Unemployment: 5.8% in January
Trade Balance: +$45.9 at end of December for the latest 12 months
Automotive Industry: 160,617 units were built in January, or 23.8% less than last year. All categories were seriously negative compared to January 2007: Cars -24.9%, light trucks: -21.7% and medium/heavy trucks: -40.5%
Steel Production: 1.5 million metric tons were produced in January, a slight increase of 0.6% compared to last year.
Currency: C$1.02 to US$1 (C$1.10 a year ago)
Nafta Steel Trade:
The latest numbers covering Intra-North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) steel trade are per the end of October 2007. Below are the highlights. (Because of rounding, not all figures add up, and Canada has one item reported as "Imports from Canada." This small number has been disregarded.)
Canada:
Total NAFTA Steel Imports: 4.7 million metric tons
From US: 4.6 million metric tons
From Mexico: 46,000 metric tons
Largest Item: hot rolled coils from the US (865,000 mt)
Mexico:
Total NAFTA Steel Imports: 3.8 million metric tons
From the US: 3.3 million metric tons
From Canada: 437,000 metric tons
Largest Item: corrosion resistant sheets in coils from the US (512,000 mt)
United States of America:
Total NAFTA Steel Imports: 7.5 million metric tons
From Canada: 5.1 million mt
From Mexico: 2.4 million mt
Largest item: hot rolled sheets in coils from Canada (1.1 million mt)