Economic overview: Canada and Mexico - November 20, 2006
Mexico: GDP: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates Mexico's growth in 2006 to be 4.4%. The Central Bank of Mexico announced their estimated range of 4.5% - 4.8%. Next year will be tougher because of the expected continued weakness of the US. Economy Industrial Production: + 5.0% in September (compared to September 2005), down from 5.6% in August Unemployment: 4.0% in October, slightly higher than the 3.98% in September Inflation: 4.3% in October for the previous twelve months – a 15 month high. The Central Bank of Mexico expects this rate to drop below 4.0% by the end of the year “Maquiladora” Growth: + 5.8% in the first ten months of 2006, compared to the same period last year; creating 45,350 jobs, as reported by the US Federal Reserve Dallas branch. (“Maquiladoras” are entities that can import goods and raw materials duty-free if the finished manufactured product will be exported. It is a very widely used operation along the border with the US.) Budget Surplus: 139 million Pesos ($12.9 billion) for the first 9 months of 2006 – an increase of 32.4% over the same period last year Trade Balance: - $5.3 billion in September (for the previous 12 months) Currency: 10.9 Pesos to US$1 as of November 15 (10.6 Pesos to US$1 a year ago) Steel Production: 1.230 million mt (e) in September – almost identical to September 2005. Year-to-date September, 11.762 million mt were produced, down 4.2% from the same period last year Canada: Consumer Prices: + 0.7% in September (compared to September 2005) Producer Prices: +1.3% in September (compared to September 2005) Industrial Production: - 0.4% in August (compared to August 2005) Unemployment: 6.2% in October (6.6% a year ago) Housing Starts: + 5.2% in October (compared to October 2005) and 6.8% ahead of September Automobile Production: 200,079 units in October, almost 20.3% less than in October 2005. In the first ten months, 2,154,552 units were produced, 3.6% off last year's pace for the same period Trade Balance: + $53.7 billion September for the previous 12 months Prime lending rate: 6.00% (as compared to 8.25% in the US) Steel Production: 1.310 million mt in September, almost the same pace as August and September 2005. Year-to-date September, the steel production of 11.970 million mt was 3.4% ahead of last year's pace during the same period.
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