At the SteelOrbis Fall '10 Conference and 63rd IREPAS Meeting, top steel executives from all over the world discussed the current juncture and future prospects of the steel markets. One of the questions examined was perhaps surprising at first glance, given the current dynamics in the steel market, but could also constitute one of the most determining issues in the future; namely: Will China start to export scrap?
According to Blake Kelley from Sims MetalManagement, China will follow a similar trend to that observed in other countries in Asia, like Japan, which previously was one of the world's main scrap importers. However, Japan developed its infrastructure over the years, becoming a significant producer of durable goods and motor vehicles, which resulted in Japan being able to create more scrap, Mr. Kelley noted. Eventually, Japan became one of the most important scrap exporting countries, with its scrap exports expected to reach eight million metric tons in 2010, he said.
A similar trend can be seen also in South Korea and Taiwan, Mr. Kelley said. The scrap suppliers in these countries have become capable of satisfying an increasingly significant share of domestic demand for scrap, he added.
According to Blake Kelley, the same will happen in China. With its annual steel production reaching 640 million metric tons, the scrap generated in China will in the long term be higher than that generated in any other country in the world. "I cannot give a date for when China will become self-sufficient in scrap supplies and then become an exporter, but it eventually will," Kelley concluded.