The Iran war has caused freight costs soaring, adding unexpected upward pressure to the cost of steel, both raw and finished. Marine bunker fuel at major ports has climbed by 60 to 75 percent since late February, US East Coast to Turkey scrap export freight is up roughly 50 percent, and US retail diesel has risen nearly 50 percent over the same window, pushing freight costs up across every leg of the steel supply chain.
The marine fuel shock as a result of the Strait of Hormuz closing is real and quantifiable. President Trump took office on January 20, 2025, when Brent prices were $81.68 per barrel, and 2025 saw a progressive decline to a low on December 16, 2025, to $59.93. These equated to a decline of almost 27 percent in Brent crude over the year, which fed through to softer bunker fuel and freight cost. Yet, from the onset of the war end of February 2026, prices jumped from $71.32 to $138.21 at peak on April 7, 2026, meaning a 93 percent increase in under 45 days. And these impacts are directly affecting shipping costs and steel prices.
While shippers are absorbing some of the fuel upcharges themselves, and saving money by slowing ship travel times, the cost of freight has nonetheless tangibly increased by about 50 percent. Freight from US East Coast to Turkey has gone from the low $30/mt pre-war to over $46-48/mt currently. And the pattern follows globally. With the exception of Los Angeles, which carries a structural premium tied to California's isolated fuel market and regulatory regime that long predates the war, the closer a port sits to the Strait of Hormuz, the higher the price per ton and the higher the impact on shipping.
The same pattern shows up on land. For diesel, after a low of $3.451 per gallon on June 2, 2025, fuel was $3.809 the week before the war was declared, and jumped 25 percent to $4.859, the week after. It now sits at a high of $5.647 per gallon, marking a nearly 50 percent increase, matching maritime fuel cost increases.
Lindsey Haught, President of HTR Logistics shared the jarring impact on the freight industry. “The war was a genuine exogenous shock, not the trigger of something already brewing. Coming into 2026, fuel markets were actually soft, with Brent in the low $60s and most analysts forecasting a surplus year. That's part of what made the move so dramatic.” Exploring solutions with their customers, Ms. Haught pointed out, “There's no single playbook for navigating a market like this, and the buyers who recognize that and tailor their approach are the ones holding up best… What I've recognized clearly through this stretch is that customers want a true valued partner over anything else. Above all, they want someone who can explain why things are happening, help them adjust where it benefits them, and get creative when the times call for it.”
Looking at the steel segment, the cost impact has translated to a tangible difference. For scrap, HMS I 80:20, the price went from a low of 368.50/mt CFR Turkey ex US on February 26, 2026 to a high of 411.50/mt CFR Turkey ex US, a $43/mt (approximately 12 percent) increase that is a result of fuel increases at every step of the chain. In the same period, rebar CFR US ex Turkey increased from 600/mt to 645/mt, a $45 (7.5 percent), significant hike. Even for domestic rebar, the cost of fuel for a 75 mile run raised rebar prices by approximately $1.50 cwt, with all passthrough costs nearing $3-4 cwt.
The immediate concern for everyone is when the price relief will come but relief is not in sight. Even if the Strait reopens tomorrow, full recovery of oil production could take four to six months, or longer, due to vessel backlogs, port congestion, damaged infrastructure, and well-restart logistics. Some fields may never return to pre-war rates, meaning that the freight costs will be the new norm for at least the next six to twelve months at minimum. Steel buyers should plan accordingly, reports say. This means factoring higher bunker driven freight surcharges into CFR cost calculations on imports, expect fuel surcharge line items on domestic trucking invoices to stay elevated, and treat any softening in spot crude as a leading rather than a coincident signal, since bunker and freight follow with a lag of weeks to months.
Ms. Haught said, “The honest answer on timing is that I expect bunker and diesel to stay elevated through the back half of 2026 and probably well into 2027, because supply recovers slower than demand reacts in every cycle like this. The customers and brokers who plan around that reality are going to come out ahead of the ones waiting for prices to fall back to where they were in January.”
There is also consideration that some of the elevation is permanent. If the oil wells take the kind of restart damage industry analysts have warned about, global oil supply may be structurally lower than it was on February 27, 2026, and the floor under freight, bunker fuel, and ultimately steel pricing will sit higher than it did before the war for years, not months.