We spoke with Naci Tacikayan, managing partner of ESNA International Transportation, about the effects of tensions in the Middle East on the logistics sector.
How are tensions in the Middle East - and particularly the risks around the Strait of Hormuz - affecting the logistics sector? Has this situation led to changes in shipping routes?
Yes, it is having an impact, but rather than a uniform shift in routes, the effect is seen as a transition to a risk-based operational model. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical waterway for global maritime trade; according to data, an average of 144 ships passed through the strait daily by mid-2025, with a significant portion consisting of tankers, container ships, and bulk carriers. However, during the escalation in March 2026, strait traffic dropped sharply, with some analyses even noting it had “nearly come to a standstill.” For this reason, rather than seeking a permanent alternative corridor, companies are opting to adjust voyage schedules, wait out the risky window, make safer port pairings, hold off on final instructions before entering the region, and reroute some cargo via alternative terminals or pipeline connections.
Unlike the Red Sea, there is no clear alternative route for the Strait of Hormuz that could serve as a Cape of Good Hope alternative. The main structural shift in routes has been observed over the past two years along the Red Sea-Suez corridor; UNCTAD notes that diverting via the Cape of Good Hope extends the voyage distance by approximately 30 percent and increases total vessel ton-mile demand. This indicates that the sector is now focusing on multi-scenario planning rather than a single corridor.
What trends have you observed in the freight market recently? How do you assess the current situation in terms of vessel availability and prices?
The main theme in the freight market is this: structural easing, with periodic sharp spikes. According to published reports, the supply surplus is growing throughout 2025 due to new vessel deliveries and low scrapping rates, meaning spot freight rates remain under downward pressure - except in the event of geopolitical shocks. In other words, the market is in a phase of “high volatility but weak underlying pricing.”
As for vessel availability, the answer varies by segment. In container shipping, new tonnage entering the global fleet typically eases availability under normal conditions; however, when there are deviations from high-risk routes, effective capacity decreases, and while it may appear that vessels are available on certain routes, finding the right tonnage in the right place at the right time becomes challenging.
How are rising geopolitical risks impacting insurance costs, delivery times, and operational planning?
The fastest impact is seen in insurance. During the March 2026 Hormuz tensions, war risk insurance premiums rose alongside tanker freight rates.
Insurance experts note that war risk coverage has not completely disappeared, but additional premiums, route exclusions, and prior approvals have come into play. In practice, this means more than just “prices have gone up” for shipowners and shippers: some cargoes can still be insured, but not under the same terms; some voyages can only be undertaken after passing through new approval cycles.
The impact on delivery times comes through two channels: first, the direct extension of routes; second, congestion at ports and transshipment hubs. Red Sea-related disruptions have extended voyage durations by weeks, and the risk of delays and congestion at major transshipment hubs in Asia is also growing due to Middle East tensions. As a result, operational planning now requires nearly daily revisions rather than weekly ones; ETA/ETD estimates, bunker plans, crew changes, port windows, and customer contract commitments are all being reassessed simultaneously.
What strategies are logistics companies implementing to manage risks in this uncertain environment?
The most common strategy is to reduce reliance on a single route or a single supplier country. Companies are turning to alternative routes and striving to establish more balanced contracts rather than relying on spot rates, while these contracts may not entirely prevent surcharges that dramatically increase freight rates, they at least offer an advantage by shifting the freight rate estimate from a scenario with many unknowns to one with fewer unknowns.
In addition, companies are now engaging in more scenario-based risk management: pre-testing the scope of war risk coverage, updating force majeure and deviation clauses in customer contracts, pre-blocking capacity for critical customers, and establishing financial safeguards against fuel and freight rate volatility. Insurance experts’ current assessment also indicates that capacity on the insurance side has become selective and volatile, suggesting that preparation should begin at the voyage planning stage rather than at the time of policy renewal.
What kinds of logistical challenges have emerged recently in the transportation of heavy industrial products like steel?
The issue with steel and similar heavy industrial cargoes is not just freight rates; handling, equipment, port and warehouse operations, damage, and trade policies are all creating pressure together. Published reports state that the global excess capacity in the steel market reached 640 million tons in 2025 and continues to rise, while trade and compliance issues are deepening. This situation means that in steel logistics, cargo flows are changing direction more frequently, markets are closing or opening suddenly, and shipment plans are being revised at the last minute due to country-specific tariffs and origin-based pressure.
On the operational side, steel products were already challenging cargoes due to their high weight, specific stacking/handling requirements, sensitivity to moisture and corrosion, and the need for compatible port cranes and equipment; geopolitical volatility is exacerbating this challenge. This is because as delays persist, inventory costs and the risk to customers’ production schedules increase; as the number of transshipments rises, the risk of damage increases; and as port congestion worsens, finding suitable equipment and berths becomes more difficult.
When you add the recent increase in trade restrictions and tariff-related disruptions to this, the “most reliable and least-handling route” becomes more valuable than the “cheapest route” in steel shipments.
Looking ahead, what trajectory do you expect in the logistics sector and the freight market?
In the base scenario, we expect a fluctuating normalization rather than a sharp decline in the freight market in the coming period. This is because, on one hand, new tonnage entering the fleet and a weakening demand outlook are pulling prices down, while on the other hand, factors such as the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, tariffs, and trade policy continue to generate sudden upward shocks.
Consequently, the sector’s main problem will not be high freight rates alone; it will be unpredictable freight rates. From a planning perspective, this will increase the need to work with wider margins in budgeting and pricing processes, offer customers shorter quote validity periods, and manage capacity dynamically. The outlook for containers remains stable, while the risk of upward spikes remains higher in the tanker and energy-related segments due to geopolitical factors.
How do you think these developments in global trade will transform the logistics sector in the long term?
In the long term, the logistics sector will become more regionalized, data-intensive, and security-focused. Companies will not completely abandon cost optimization, but cost will no longer be the sole criterion; resilience, supply diversity, visibility, and policy risk management will take center stage.
In my view, three transformations will be permanent in the long term:
First, route and source diversification will become standard practice.
Second, the integration of insurance, security, and operations will strengthen; in other words, insurance will become an integral part of operational design.
Third, the return on investment in digitalization and visibility will increase because the greatest advantage in times of uncertainty is being able to detect changes on the ground early and notify the customer promptly.
What are your expectations for 2026?
Looking back from today, the main expectation for 2025 was as follows, and it largely materialized: high volatility, regional capacity shifts, geopolitical premiums, and weakening price discipline. In 2025, we saw maritime trade growth under pressure, routes being reshaped, and freight rate volatility remaining high.
If I were to summarize this as a corporate message in a single sentence, I would say:
2025 was the year the distinction between “cheap capacity” and “safe and predictable capacity” in logistics became clear; in 2026, the competitive advantage will lie not with those offering the lowest prices, but with companies capable of ensuring service continuity amid uncertainty.