Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) has raised its crude steel production forecast for the April-June quarter, reflecting a slightly more optimistic outlook among major Japanese steelmakers compared to early April.
According to METI’s latest forecast, Japanese mills expect to produce 20.72 million mt of crude steel in April-June, up from 20.15 million mt in the same period last year and above January-March output. While the level remains low, it would mark the first year-on-year increase in ten quarters, since October-December 2023.
Domestic demand, in crude steel terms, is forecast to rise 1.4 percent year on year to 13.97 million mt, while export demand is expected to decline 3.8 percent year on year to 5.9 million mt.
METI said there had been “no significant change in the demand environment,” but urged the industry to remain vigilant over developments in the Middle East, China’s worsening steel supply-demand balance and US tariff policies.
For key products tracked by the ministry, H-beam output is expected to reach around 750,000 mt, up 10,000 mt from January-March and 30,000 mt year on year. Small bar output is forecast at 1.61 million mt, up 140,000 mt quarter on quarter but down 50,000 mt year on year.
Speaking to local media, Nippon Steel vice president Takashi Hirose said the steel market is “not in a phase of rapid economic recovery,” although some improvement is visible in industrial machinery and steel sections.
Hirose also said steel import volumes still need to be monitored. Japan’s total steel imports fell by 465,000 mt last year to 7.38 million mt, according to JISF data, but imports remain high relative to weaker domestic demand.
He added that China’s crude steel output remains at a scale of 1 billion mt per year, while exports are at around 100 million mt per year, creating pressure on international markets. China supplied 935,400 mt, or about 20%, of Japan’s total steel imports last year. Hirose also warned that China’s shift toward semi-finished exports such as billets and slabs is disrupting the global supply-demand balance.