Speaking at the Eurometal Steel Day & 11th YISAD Flat Steel Conference held at Istanbul Marriott Hotel Asia on Tuesday, March 24, in cooperation with SteelOrbis, Lars Hillmann, lawyer/counsel at law firm Cattwyk, presented an overview of the legal framework and expected market impact of the EU’s post-safeguard steel trade measures.
Recalling that the current EU steel safeguard system, in force since 2018, will expire on June 20, 2026, reaching the maximum eight-year duration allowed under WTO rules, Mr. Hillman noted that the European Commission is preparing a new trade measure that will replace the existing safeguard system.
New measure to significantly reduce quotas, to double tariffs to 50 percent
The proposal foresees a total quota volume of around 18.3 million mt per year, compared to approximately 34 million mt under the current measures, marking a 47 percent reduction in import volumes. The new framework is expected to introduce an out-of-quota tariff of 50 percent, doubling the current 25 percent duty applied under safeguards. Hillmann noted that this change would represent a significant tightening of EU trade protection measures for steel imports.
Unlike the current safeguard measures, the new measure is designed to be permanent, with no predefined expiry. “This is a permanent measure… We have a permanent measure because there is a permanent problem,” he said. The new system is expected to enter into force on July 1, 2026, immediately after the existing safeguards lapse.
“Melt and pour” rule to reshape origin requirements
Hillmann highlighted the introduction of a “melt and pour” rule, under which importers will be required to prove the country where the steel was originally melted and cast. According to Hillman, the “melt and pour” criteria will not be another part of “the rules of origin”, it will be independent of that. This requirement will determine access to country-specific quotas and is expected to increase administrative complexity at customs level.
Meanwhile, the proposed system would apply to all countries (erga omnes), with only EEA countries exempt. Hillmann underlined that FTA partners would be included, and developing country exemptions would be removed, representing a broader scope compared to the current safeguard regime.
He noted that negotiations with multiple WTO members would be required, compensation may need to be offered, and trading partners could respond with retaliatory measures if no agreement is reached. “If there is no agreement, trading partners are free to implement countermeasures as they see fit,” he stated.
