Indian steel prices in November 2025 showed a downward trend due to the slowdown in trade momentum and the rapid buildup of inventories belying expectations of a post-festive trend reversal. With prices languishing at five-year lows, it appeared as if the downtrend entered into a phase of stagnation in November as depressed market conditions prevailed.
While affirmative policy action in the form of GST rationalisation in the auto sector, and the expected pickup in construction and infrastructure activities after Diwali, failed to have any significant impact on steel market sentiments and prices.
Notably, steel and metallics prices remained mostly in negative territory, continuing the same trends prevailing in October, while essential raw materials prices firmed up. The list price hikes of some of the leading primary mills in the beginning of the month were not absorbed by the market even as inventory pressure forced a steady decline in steel prices throughout November.
Iron ore & pellets: Domestic iron ore prices remained firm, edging up 2% month on month, due largely to supply remaining short of the surge in demand. Miners largely maintained the higher offers they had announced after OMC's mid-month auction received a strong response. Sources informed that bidding was aggressive during the auction which pushed up prices as buyers competed for limited volumes. High-grade ore and lumps prices remained consistently firm in Odisha, with NMDC's announcement of a hike in lumps prices month on month providing further support to prices.
BigMint's pellet index tracking the key Raipur market, however, fell by 4% month on month mainly because of the depressed conditions prevailing in the sponge iron and semi-finished steel markets. The slight improvement in prices of DRI and semis was due to the buoyant sentiments in the IF rebar market earlier in November but supply glut and competitive offers from neighbouring states weighed on pellet prices in Raipur.
Coal: BigMint's coking coal index for India rose by 5% month on month in November as, globally, coking coal prices strengthened on positive sentiments in China, especially in early November, which pushed up offers, sources said. China's met coke plants completed their third round of price hikes in early November amid tight supply which kept global prices supported. Due to declining domestic steel prices the Indian import market saw significant bid-offer disparities.
South African coal prices into India edged up slightly month on month because of a) the mild recovery in demand from the sponge sector in the backdrop of a marginal improvement in prices, b) higher freight rates on the South Africa-India route, and c) buoyant Asian demand, especially from Japan and South Korea, will kept prices supported. Portside prices, too, remained firm due to tight availability.
Scrap & metallics: Domestic melting scrap prices moved sideways throughout November in the midst of the general downturn in the steel market. The imported scrap market witnessed bid-offer disparities throughout the month as global prices ticked up on Turkish pre-winter restocking demand and overall tight supply conditions while domestic appetite for imported cargoes remained poor.
The domestic sponge iron market showed some signs of an improvement during the early part of November amid a fleeting phase of dynamism in the domestic steel market, which accounts for the marginal uptick in prices month on month. Firm domestic iron ore and imported coal prices, too, offered support to sponge prices despite weak steel prices.
Pig iron prices in the eastern part of the country increased by 2% month on month mainly due to a) the momentary dynamism in the IF steel market in early November and the uptick in IF-based steel prices, b) the uptick in domestic met coke prices, especially in eastern India because of rising global coking coal prices and constrained domestic availability stemming from quantitative restrictions on imports.
Billet: The semi-finished steel market reflected more or less the same trends seen in the steel and metallics markets. A marginal uptrend in prices was observed in the last couple of weeks of November after the OMC iron ore auction and strong price trends in north India. However, buyer caution limited any significant or protracted recovery in market sentiments.
Rebar & wire rod: Rebar prices in key markets, per BigMint assessment, had edged up in early November due to the hike in semi-finished steel prices, IF rebar prices and renewed dynamism in the market. However, high production levels soon led to an inventory buildup.
Rebar production from the major mills rose in October supported by higher output from JSW Steel, Tata Steel and Jindal Steel. However, demand remained sluggish, causing inventory buildup at mills. Prices in November fell to a five-year low on muted trading activity across markets, with sellers offering discounts to clear inventories. Surplus material in the trade channel intensified the pressure on prices.
Wire rod prices saw a marginal recovery after reaching five-year lows in October. But prices showed no signs of any sustained recovery due to weak steel prices and construction activity as well as market uncertainty.
HRC: Most of the leading primary producers hiked list prices of HRC for November sales by INR 1,250/t compared to end-October and the trade market witnessed a fleeting phase of dynamism in the beginning of last month. Firm domestic iron ore prices, the temporary uptick in exports to the EU and safeguard measures restraining the inflow of steel imports kept sentiments positive.
However, trade prices kept edging down throughout the month as the list price hikes by some Tier-1 producers were ill-absorbed by the market, which continued to see poor demand even as supplies remained high. Mills and distributors actively pushed sales as piling inventories and liquidity constraints affected demand. Stock levels at distributors and company yards were elevated.
Oversupply and high inventory levels led to a steady decline in prices. Incidentally, the government's decision to suspend BIS norms for certain steel product imports is expected to cover all aspects of end-user demand and lead to further supply and price normalisation. In the last week of November, buyers delayed purchases expecting an imminent price correction in December.
Silico manganese: Domestic silico manganese prices remained stable month on month due to soft steel market sentiments and poor export market conditions. New EU safeguard quotas for ferro alloys further dampened sentiments in the export market. However, prices remained unchanged month on month due to firm imported manganese ore prices, especially of South African origin, and the consequent hike in MOIL's prices.
Outlook
Elevated supply continues to pressure prices and is delaying any meaningful market recovery in both the longs and flats segments. While there is a latent optimism regarding a rebound in real demand and consumption in the upcoming January-March quarter, declining production and demand in China, as well as key markets such as the EU and Japan, is likely to impede any recovery in global steel prices.
The firming up of raw material prices is naturally leading to an erosion of producer margins and, therefore, steel prices are unlikely to edge down in any significant way in Q4FY'26. Mills may resort to curtailment of production in certain cases in sync with market movements and this may alleviate the supply pressure somewhat amid weak exports. But a clear recovery signal, both in the domestic and global markets, is not yet in sight.
Source: BigMint