The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has shared its growth forecast for ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam). For 2022, the IMF has revised its growth forecast for ASEAN-5 countries to 5.6 percent, down 0.2 percent from the October 2021 forecast, amid pandemic-induced disruptions, weaker demand and supply disruptions.
The IMF has reduced its 2022 forecast for Indonesia to 5.6 percent, down 0.3 percent from the October forecast. Indonesia’s 2023 growth has also been revised, to 6.0 percent from 6.4 percent previously.
Similarly, the 2022 forecast for Thailand has been reduced to 4.1 percent, down 0.4 percent previously. However, the 2023 forecast for Thailand is up by 0.7 percent to 4.7 percent.
For Malaysia, growth for 2022 is expected to be 5.7 percent, down 0.3 percent from the October 2021 forecast. The 2023 forecast has remained unchanged at 5.7 percent.
The growth forecast for the Philippines remained at 6.3 percent for 2022, while in 2023 the economy is expected to grow at 6.9 percent, 0.1 percent lower compared to the previous forecast.
There was no published forecast for Vietnam, although it is part of the ASEAN-5 forecast.
The IMF stated that the outlook is based on assumptions and that potential risks that may affect the outlook on growth are the ongoing pandemic, the slow vaccination programs in emerging and developing countries affecting recovery, and the duration of supply disruptions, especially due to bottlenecks at ports and land transport.