The South East Asia Iron and Steel Institute (SEAISI) has commented on the current situation of the global economies, stating that governments are working on restarting their stalled economies, though the risks to the global recovery outweigh the gains from efforts to get economies to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
Regarding demand and supply, SEAISI stated that, as the global recovery continues, the rise in demand for goods and services has outstripped supply. This has led to a surge in prices, especially energy and commodity prices.
While the global economy recovery is facing obstacles amid supply-demand imbalances, the war between Russia and Ukraine has further exacerbated the situation. Sanctions on commodities from Russia and the impact of the war on Ukrainian sectors have worsened the supply chain for energy and fuels, and have also affected industries that rely on the two countries for rare metals and gases.
The global economy continues to be affected by China’s lockdowns in major cities and ports, disrupting supply.
In addition, many countries are raising interest rates to combat inflation. But rising interest rates increase business costs, which will slow down the global economic recovery.
SEAISI has also shared the ASEAN-6 countries’ gross domestic product (GDP) data for the first quarter this year, and the economic growth forecast for 2022.
Countries |
Q4 2021 GDP growth (%) |
Q1 2022 GDP growth (%) |
2022 growth forecast (%) |
5.0 |
5.0 |
4.5-5.3 |
|
3.6 |
5.0 |
5.3-6.3 |
|
7.7 |
8.3 |
7.0-8.0 |
|
6.1 |
3.7 |
3.0-5.0 |
|
1.9 |
2.2 |
2.5-3.5 |
|
5.2 |
5.0 |
6.0-6.5 |
The economies of the ASEAN countries mostly grew, except Singapore and Vietnam, mainly due to the easing of the restrictions and containment measures and the spike in commodity prices. ASEAN governments have forecast further expansions in their economies in 2022, though the numbers may be revised amid challenges and risks.
