According to the Brazilian steel institute, IABr, Brazil’s crude steel production is expected to decline by 2.2 percent in 2025 compared with 2024, reaching 33.1 million mt, as record levels of steel imports continue to pressure domestic producers.
IABr stated that imports of rolled steel products are forecast to rise by 20.5 percent in 2025 to 5.7 million mt, marking the highest volume in 15 years. According to the institute, these import flows are already having a tangible impact on the domestic steel sector, leading to the loss of 5,000 jobs and a R$2.5 billion ($452 million) reduction in planned investments.
Based on IABr projections, domestic steel sales are expected to fall by 0.5 percent in 2025 to 21.2 million mt. In contrast, apparent consumption is forecast to increase by 2.4 percent to 26.7 million mt, driven primarily by higher import volumes. At the same time, exports are projected to grow by 6.9 percent, reaching 10.2 million mt.
Import penetration increases, trade defense measures not sufficient
According to IABr, current steel imports are running 168 percent above the average annual volume recorded between 2000 and 2019, when imports averaged 2.2 million mt. This surge has pushed the import share in domestic consumption to 21 percent, compared with a historical average of 9.7 percent.
Commenting on the situation, Marco Polo de Mello Lopes, executive president of IABr, stated that the current level of import penetration is “unacceptable,” noting that imported steel already accounts for around one-third of domestic steel sales. IABr pointed out that elevated import levels have persisted despite the government’s quota and tariff trade defense mechanism, which currently covers 16 HS codes out of a total of 273 steel product classifications.
2026 outlook: pressure expected to continue
If current trends persist and external market conditions remain unchanged, IABr forecasts that imports will rise by a further 10 percent in 2026, reaching 6.3 million mt. Under this scenario, domestic steel production is expected to decline by another 2.2 percent to 32.4 million mt, while domestic sales would fall 1.7 percent to 20.8 million mt. Apparent consumption is projected to increase slightly to 27.0 million mt.
Industry calls for stronger trade defense
Faced with persistently high import volumes, the Brazilian steel industry expects the government to adopt more effective trade defense measures. Without further action, IABr warned that unfair competition could lead to additional plant closures and job losses.
Commenting on the situation, André B. Gerdau Johannpeter, chairman of the board of directors of the Brazil Steel Institute and of Gerdau, stated that job and investment losses reflect Brazil’s slower response to predatory imports compared with markets such as the United States, the European Union and Mexico. He added that similar measures would help prevent the transfer of jobs to countries exporting steel into Brazil under unfair conditions.