Global iron ore and pellet trade showed mixed trends in the first half of Financial year 2026, supported by stable shipment activity from major exporting countries and continued buying from Asian markets, particularly China. However, the overall market also faced multiple challenges during the period, including elevated crude oil prices amid the US-Iran conflict, which increased freight costs and impacted global trade flows. At the same time, rising mine supply from major exporters and expectations of additional volumes following the commencement of first ore production from the Simandou iron ore project significantly increased seaborne cargo availability, continuing to exert pressure on international iron ore prices despite intermittent improvement in Chinese demand.
Australian shipments rise eight percent year on year
Australia's iron ore exports stood at 451.7 million mt in the first half of FY26, up 7.8 percent from 419 million mtt in the first half of FY25. Pellet exports also increased by 10 percent year on year to 1.1 million mt from one million mt last year. Moreover, Australia exported 82.0 million mt of iron ore and 200,000 mt of pellets in June this year, compared with 80.7 million mt of iron ore and 200,000 mt of pellets in May.
China remained the largest importer of Australian iron ore and pellets at 375.1 million mt, followed by Japan at 28.5 million mt. Among exporters, Rio Tinto led shipments with 156.1 million mt, followed by BHP at 145.9 million mt and Fortescue Metals Group at 105.9 million mt during the first half of FY26.
Australian exports remained high on account of greater dispatches particularly to China in order to offset their domestic subdued iron ore production; with ROM production plunging down to 397 million mt the first five months of FY26 against 412 million mt in the same period last year.
Moreover, China maintained higher portside inventories ended June this year at 159 million mt (across 34 major ports) which further supported higher shipments at a scenario where the Chinese crude steel production dipped by 4.5 percent to 434.8 million mt in the first half this year against the first half of FY25. Additionally, higher exports were aided by stronger shipment activity from major miners, stable mining and rail operations across Pilbara leading to steady procurement during the first half of the year.
Brazilian supply edges down four percent year on year
Brazil's iron ore exports stood at 181.82 million mt in the first half of FY26, down 3.8 percent from 188.95 million mt in the first half of FY25. Brazil exported 35.75 million mt of iron ore in June this year against 32.29 million mt in May this year, recording a 10.7 percent month on month increase.
China (126.75 mnt) remained the largest importer of Brazilian iron ore during the period, followed by Malaysia (8.42 mnt) and Japan (5.51 mnt). Demand for Brazilian medium- and high-grade fines stayed relatively healthy, supported by blending requirements and productivity optimization at steel mills.
South African export cuts by six percent year on year
South Africa's iron ore exports stood at 26.93 million mt in the first half of FY26, down 5.5 percent from 28.49 million mt in the first half of FY25. China remained the largest importer of South African iron ore at 13.43 million mt, followed by the Netherlands at 3.56 million mt. South Africa exported 4.37 million mt of iron ore in June 2026 against 3.42 million mt in May 2026.
Export volumes remained under pressure due to continued rail and logistics inefficiencies, along with intermittent disruptions in cargo evacuation to export terminals. In addition, strong availability of Australian and Brazilian cargoes in the seaborne market continued to impact the competitiveness of South African material.
India's export rises 24 percent in H1
India's iron ore exports stood at 13.28 million mt in the first half of FY26, rising 23.9 percent from 10.72 million mt in the first half of FY25. In contrast, pellet exports declined by 32.8 percent year on year to 2.17 million mt from 3.23 million mt in the same period last year.
India exported 2.46 million mt of iron ore and 320,000 mt of pellets in June this year against 2.55 million mt of iron ore and 480,000 mt of pellets in May this year. Iron ore exports declined by 3.5 percent month on month, while pellet shipments fell sharply by 33.3 percent month on month.
Higher iron ore exports were supported by weaker Indian rupee against dollar; fetching better realizations. On the other hand, stronger cargo movement from east coast ports, improved exporter participation, and sustained Chinese demand kept momentum high. However, pellet exports declined amid softer overseas pellet demand and increased preference for direct iron ore cargoes in the seaborne market.
Outlook
Global iron ore and pellet trade is expected to remain relatively stable in the near term, supported by steady supply from major exporters and continued procurement from Asian buyers. However, the sharp rise in seaborne iron ore availability, along with expectations of additional supply from the Simandou iron ore project, is likely to keep pressure on global iron ore prices going forward.
Source: BigMint