Australia’s metallurgical coal export earnings are forecast to fall from an estimated A$60 billion in 2022-23 to A$42 billion by 2024-25, with higher volumes acting as a partial offset to falling prices, according to the quarterly outlook report by the Australian government’s Department of Industry, Innovation and Science.
After softening in late 2022 and early 2023, metallurgical coal demand has firmed up in recent months, driven by lower prices and higher steel production in Europe and China. Global metallurgical coal supply is expected to grow modestly during the outlook period, though low investment in expansions and new mines could act as a constraint.
The Australian premium hard coking coal price is forecast to average at $273/mt in 2023, but is estimated to fall to around $200/mt by 2025 with the expected improvement of supply conditions in Australia.
Higher production in New South Wales and Queensland is expected to push Australia’s exports up from 157 million mt in 2022-23 to 175 million mt in 2024-25.