Australia’s metallurgical coal export earnings are forecast to fall from A$62 billion in 2022-23 to A$41 billion by 2024-25, with higher volumes acting as a partial offset to falling prices, according to the quarterly outlook report by the Australian government’s Department of Industry, Innovation and Science. In the previous quarterly outlook report, Australia’s metallurgical coal export earnings were forecast to fall to A$42 billion by 2024-25, as SteelOrbis previously reported.
Demand for metallurgical coal held up through the September quarter. The markets appear to have stabilized, with demand matched by more reliable supply as weather disruptions eased following the end of the La Niña weather episode affecting Australia. Looking forward, global metallurgical coal trade is forecast to increase from 312 million mt in 2022 to 316 million mt by 2025, led by rising demand in India. The current supply gap in metallurgical coal markets is expected to close during the outlook period, as supply firms and demand growth cools slightly amid a temporary downturn in global economic conditions.
The Australian premium hard coking coal price is forecast to average at $265/mt in 2023, but is estimated to fall to around $200/mt by 2025 with the expected improvement of supply conditions in Australia.
Higher production in New South Wales and Queensland is expected to push Australia’s exports up from 157 million mt in 2022-23 to 172 million mt in 2024-25.
