The Italian scrap market closed January on a clearly firmer footing compared with the end of 2025. In the first part of the month, ferrous scrap prices recorded increases of around €20-25/mt, reinforcing the more optimistic sentiment perceived among operators in the collection, recovery, recycling and trading segments. On the demand side, these increases were absorbed, but without opening the door to a further upside: even where traders committed to supplying significant volumes, the market was unable to move higher, instead entering a phase of consolidation in the second half of the month and supporting still-positive expectations for February.
The start of the new month, however, remains difficult to interpret. On the one hand, some steelmakers continue to suffer from weak finished steel sales and are considering cutting production; on the other hand, mills supported by stronger order books appear willing to grant further price increases in order to secure continuity of scrap supply. In this context, much will depend on scrap availability at yards and, above all, on the evolution of finished steel demand, which remains far from buoyant. The risk of further production slowdowns - and a consequent weakening of scrap demand - cannot be ruled out. Regardless of these factors, the shortage of good quality scrap continues to represent the main market driver.
On the international front, January confirmed a tight market environment, underpinned by fairly solid demand. Turkey recorded a further increase in prices of around $5/mt, despite a not particularly strong rebar market: scrap purchase prices remained under pressure, contributing to the upward trend. European markets - with Spain, France and Germany in the spotlight - also showed a positive trend, with average increases exceeding €10/mt and a partial narrowing of the gap with Turkish prices. This was driven by scrap demand outstripping supply and supported, at least in part, by higher freight rates. Asia was less reactive at the beginning of the month, before recovering towards the end of the month; forecasts, slightly more positive than in 2025 and with particular attention on India, could allow prices to move closer to Turkish levels.
Stainless scrap market
In the stainless scrap segment, January opened with marked caution and a market struggling to find a clear direction. Uncertainty linked to the operational start of CBAM has pushed European steelmakers towards a prudent stance, while waiting for clearer indications on both bureaucratic procedures and the real financial impact of the definitive phase. Globally, the picture remains fragmented, with attention focused mainly on Asia, where interest stayed at mid-range levels but trading activity was heavily affected by currency volatility. Exchange rate fluctuations reduced visibility and confined transactions to short time windows. A divergence also emerged between official quotations and the physical spot market: despite a significant rise in nickel prices on the LME, the impact on scrap quotations was limited, with only marginal increases. This imbalance has tightened supply, as current price levels are deemed insufficiently remunerative compared with replacement costs, prompting several operators to stock material while waiting for more consistent adjustments.
No structural changes have emerged in specialist segments compared with the end of 2025. Superalloys remain in a phase of weak activity, with slow stock rotation for standard grades, while demand for high-speed steels continues to be highly selective and confined to specific niches. Large-scale industrial projects capable of adding depth to order books are still lacking.
Pig iron
As for pig iron, the European market showed no significant changes in January. However, the entry into force of CBAM and the difficulty in understanding cost-calculation mechanisms - which vary depending on material origin - have effectively paralysed many negotiations, despite some buying interest, particularly for Brazilian pig iron, which appears to be subject to a lower CBAM cost than other origins. Shipments from Ukraine have been frozen or diverted to the US market. In the special pig iron segment, uncertainty and price increases were mainly driven by the CBAM: the inability of producers to certify emissions and of importers to immediately purchase CBAM certificates has led to a freeze in quotations to customers, while estimates of the surcharge - based on EU default values by country of origin - remain highly uncertain and far from negligible.
Ferroalloys
Finally, in the ferroalloys segment, safeguard measures combined with the launch of CBAM have frozen purchases and limited sales of spot material. Availability remains tight and uncertainty over price levels for future transactions is still high. In particular, traders have struggled to calculate the surcharge to be applied to customers for the purchase of CBAM certificates, resulting in a temporary freeze - and in some cases cancellation - of planned new pig iron shipments. In practice, many traders have refrained from quoting, with only a few deals concluded for limited volumes and surcharges varying according to origin and individual assessments. On the demand side, most foundries are nevertheless covered for the entire first quarter with orders placed in 2025 at prices excluding CBAM costs; stocks are currently replenished but not available for sale, pending further clarification.