Tayfun İşeri, Chairman of Turkey’s Flat Steel Exporters and Industrialists Association (YİSAD), spoke to SteelOrbis regarding his 2025 review and 2026 expectations.
How did 2025 go for the steel sector and the global markets?
Globally, 2025 will be remembered as a year of increased protectionism in the steel sector. With the intention of protecting its own steel sector, the US changed the shape of world trade during President Trump's first term by imposing a 25 percent tariff and quotas on imports. Globalization suddenly turned into regional trade. After a period of time, Trump, being re-elected, realized that the measures he had initiated were not successful due to exceptions, so in 2025 he removed all exceptions and quotas and ended discrimination by imposing a 50 percent import tax on all countries. The era of localization in trade has now begun.
Concerned that the EU's import restrictions would cause excess global production to flood its markets, the European Union switched to a quota system and imposed a 25 percent tax on quantities exceeding the quotas. It announced that it would launch the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in 2026 and reduce existing quotas throughout 2025.
In 2025, while overall global steel production declined, India and Vietnam achieved a 10 percent increase. Turkey rose to seventh place in the world rankings as Germany's production fell by 10 percent.
Despite a four percent decline in production, China's share of total global production was 54 percent. However, despite all trade barriers, China reached its highest level of previous years with 130 million metric tons of exports in 2025. Unfair competition and low prices made it a difficult year for producers in countries without protection.
In Turkey, high production costs, high interest rates and shrinking markets negatively affected profitability, forcing many plants to halt production in the last quarter of the year.
Turkey experienced serious difficulties in exports in 2025. It left behind a troubled 2025 with restrictions in the US and the European Union and attacks from China.
What do you expect for 2026?
In 2026, US protectionism will continue to keep prices high in that region. The implementation of CBAM in Europe will increase prices. Developments in other regions will depend entirely on China. I do not think India will create price competition, given that its domestic markets are expected to be strong.
In Turkey, I think falling interest rates and increased demand linked to new projects will lead to a performance similar to that seen in 2025. However, it will not be an easy year.
Uncertainties due to Europe's implementation of CBAM will challenge our exports in the first six months of the year. However, we must not forget Europe's obligation to import.
As long as the US does not remove its current trade barriers, I believe there may be opportunities for Turkey at certain times, provided that there is no discrimination between principles.
I believe that the rapid conclusion of the peace process around our country in 2026 will have a positive impact on all our sectors.
I hope that 2026 will be a healthy, happy and above all peaceful year, both abroad and at home.