Kerem Çakır, chairman of Turkey’s Cold Rolled, Galvanized and Painted Sheet Metal Manufacturers Association (SOGAD), spoke to SteelOrbis regarding his review of 2025 and expectations for 2026.
How did 2025 go for the steel sector and the global markets?
2025 was a very challenging year for the global steel sector. Overall, we experienced a year in which global steel demand remained stagnant, prices were under pressure due to intense competition and continued oversupply, and the inflationary environment put pressure on production costs. 2025 also stood out as a year in which protectionist policies became even more decisive. The hardening of trade policies seriously challenged market conditions, especially for export-oriented producers such as Turkey.
Looking at the flat steel sector and especially our SOGAD member companies, the outcome of investigations initiated by the US and Canada into Turkish-origin galvanized products, the regulations under Section 232 in the US, the Canadian steel quotas, the EU safeguard and the EU cold rolled sheet antidumping investigations significantly reshaped global trade flows during this period. The regulations implemented following Trump's re-election as president created significant uncertainties for the steel sector, as they did for other sectors. However, we can say that the removal of exemptions previously applied under Section 232 and the increase in tariffs from 25 percent to 50 percent have made competitive conditions in the US market more equitable. On the European side, safeguard measures remained on the agenda. The publication of a draft regulation on the continuation of existing safeguard measures in 2025 signaled that uncertainties in the European market would persist. This situation made both quota management and price competition more complex and difficult to predict.
In light of all these developments, 2025 can be described as a year of continued global overcapacity, weak demand, and protectionism taking precedence over trade. For companies, this period has been a process in which market diversification, flexible sales strategies and a shift towards value-added products have become imperative.
What are your expectations for 2026?
Looking at our expectations for 2026 from the demand side, we anticipate a limited improvement compared to 2025. According to Worldsteel's latest estimates, global steel demand is expected to increase by 1.3 percent in 2026. We believe this improvement will be felt more clearly, especially from the second half of the year onwards.
However, it is not possible to say that protectionism will decrease. Countries in the global steel market have not abandoned their reflex to protect their strategic sectors. Therefore, we predict that 2026 will be a year in which trade defense instruments remain effective rather than free trade.
In this context, one of the most important items on the agenda for Turkey is the antidumping investigation we have initiated as SOGAD against CR, HDG and PPG products originating from China and South Korea. We expect this investigation to be concluded promptly and decisively. The price pressure created by dumped imports disrupts the balance in the domestic market and also challenges the sustainability of domestic production. We believe that effective decisions will restore fair competition conditions.
On the other hand, in Europe, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) stands out as a factor that will fundamentally affect the sector's competitive structure in 2026 and beyond. Leaked information about the draft regulations in recent times indicates that we will face higher-than-expected costs, particularly when considering the free allocation benchmark values and default emission levels. The final version of the CBAM is expected to transform the carbon cost from merely an environmental regulation into a direct trade and competition factor. For our producers exporting to the EU in particular, 2026 will be a year when carbon management, traceability and reporting become mandatory.
In summary, we see 2026 as a period in which trade defense measures will intensify on the one hand, while carbon regulations will come into effect on the other, and competition will be determined not only by price but also by policy compliance and sustainability targets. In this new order, we believe that effective trade measures protecting domestic production and investments in low-carbon and value-added production will be key factors shaping the future of the sector. In this context, we consider it critically important to strengthen diplomatic consultations, particularly with the EU, and deepen strategic partnerships to support Turkey's sustainable export goals.