SteelOrbis talked to Mehmet Ali Fincan, general manager of Yametaş Yassı Metal Mamulleri regarding their 2025 review and expectations for 2026.
I would like to begin by wishing all my colleagues a prosperous and wonderful year.
While 2025 was a year of “resistance against the storm” for the steel sector, 2026 looks set to be a period of recovery, with the storm subsiding but the rules being rewritten.
I can summarize my views and assessments under the following main headings:
2025 assessment - Searching for the bottom and trade wars
2025 was a challenging year for the steel sector, falling short of expectations. The key dynamics shaping our market during this period were as follows:
- China's impact and oversupply. The deepening real estate crisis in China reduced domestic consumption while pushing Chinese producers toward aggressive exports. This situation suppressed global steel prices, squeezing the margins of producers in other regions.
- Stagnant global demand. Continued low growth rates, particularly in developed countries, suppressed demand in steel-intensive sectors such as construction and automotive. 2025 was a year in which global steel consumption remained virtually flat (annual change of approximately 0-0.5 percent).
- Protectionist measures. Many countries sought to protect their domestic producers through antidumping investigations and additional tariffs against cheap imports. Trade measures fragmented the global flow of steel.
2026 expectations - Moderate recovery and green transformation
Projections for 2026 reflect cautious optimism. The World Steel Association expects global demand to increase by approximately 1.3 percent in 2026.
- Rebound from the “trough” in Europe and the impact of the CEFTA. The European steel market is expected to experience a clear recovery in 2026 after hitting a trough in 2025. However, 2026 will be a year when the financial obligations of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will be felt more tangibly. This situation may create an opportunity for producers of green steel with a low carbon footprint (especially countries with high electric arc furnace capacity, such as Turkey).
- India and emerging markets. As China's growth slows, India is expected to remain the main driver of steel demand in 2026. With infrastructure investments and rapid urbanization, India will increase its weight in the global production and consumption balance. In other emerging countries, the possibility of pent-up demand returning to the surface has strengthened.
- Delayed impact of interest rate cuts. The global cycle of interest rate cuts, which began or gained momentum in the last quarter of 2025, is expected to breathe life into the construction, white goods and automotive sectors in 2026. This will directly boost demand for finished products.
- Raw material and energy costs. Although energy costs continue to normalize, green transformation investments (transition to electric arc furnaces, use of hydrogen) will keep companies' capital expenditures high.
In summary, 2026 will be a year during which competition in the steel sector will intensify, focusing on “value-added and low-carbon production” rather than volume growth. In Turkey's case, quota regulations in the European market and CBAM compliance will remain the two most critical factors determining our export performance.
