SteelOrbis talked to Ezequiel Tavernelli, executive director at Latin American Steel Association (Alacero) about 2025 review and 2026 expectations.
How do you evaluate 2025?
2025 was a very challenging year for the steel industry in Latin America, marked by a fragile macroeconomic environment and increasing pressure from international trade under unequal conditions. In the region, steel consumption did not grow, while the local industry continued to face increasingly intense competition from imported products, in many cases at prices that do not reflect normal market conditions.
In concrete terms, apparent consumption of flat steel products in Latin America is estimated to close 2025 with a year-on-year variation of -0.6 percent, totaling around 72.7 million metric tons. This outcome reflects heterogeneous dynamics across the region, with recoveries in countries such as Argentina and Brazil (+14.9% and +5.0%, respectively) and significant declines in other key markets such as Mexico and Colombia (-10.5% and -3.4%). At the same time, regional production declined, while imports continued to gain market share and are estimated to account for nearly 40 percent of apparent consumption by the end of 2025 (39.7%), the highest level in Alacero’s historical series.
Adding to this scenario is an increasingly concerning phenomenon: the rise in imports of manufactured goods that contain steel (indirect steel imports), such as automobiles, machinery, home appliances and other durable goods. This process amplifies the impact of external competition, as it not only displaces local steel production but also affects the entire industrial value chain, from input suppliers to downstream manufacturing sectors. The result is lower generation of value added, employment and productive capabilities in the region.
In this context, 2025 made it clear that steel cannot be analyzed as an isolated sectoral issue, but rather as a strategic matter for economic development and regional competitiveness.
What are your expectations for 2026?
Looking ahead to 2026, Latin America has clear structural strengths: an energy matrix that is cleaner than the global average, modern and efficient industrial capacity to supply regional consumption, talent, strategic natural resources and a steel industry that has been investing steadily in modernization, efficiency and sustainability.
However, the starting point is not neutral. The high level of imports observed in 2025 - close to 40 percent of regional consumption in direct imports, together with the advance of indirect steel - poses a central challenge for this year. This is not only about the evolution of the steel market, but about the region’s ability to preserve and develop an industrial fabric with international competitiveness.
In addition, 2026 is shaping up to be a year marked by greater uncertainty in global trade rules and by geopolitical tensions that could affect the region.
For Latin America’s strengths to translate into greater production, investment and industrial employment, it will be essential to move toward clear and predictable rules of the game and competition on a level playing field, including effective trade defense instruments when appropriate and policies that promote local value added and productive linkages: we need a level playing field. At Alacero, we hope that 2026 will be a year to consolidate a more integrated regional agenda, deepen cooperation with governments and international organizations, and continue providing strategic information to support public and private decision-making.
If we succeed in aligning efforts among companies, governments and society, 2026 can be a key year to lay the foundations for a stronger, more sustainable steel industry with greater prospects for Latin America. With a level playing field, the Latin American industry can compete and demonstrate its value for the region’s development, because it has the resources, talent and capacity to achieve it.
Background 2025
Macroeconomic perspectives for Latin America's steel industry: 2025 and the impact of unfair Chinese competition
Latin America is slowly emerging from the economic imbalances caused by the pandemic, but the region remains trapped in a cycle of low growth. As it nears the end of a process of inflation reduction, Latin America's economic prospects are improving, but challenges persist. Despite a modest improvement in the outlook for 2024 (1.6% growth, up from 1.5% in April), the growth forecast for the full year of 2025 has been revised downward, from 2.4 percent to 1.9 percent (Alacero based on IMF GDP data for the six main Latin American economies). This revised forecast reflects both internal and external challenges that continue to shape the region’s economic trajectory.
Economic challenges and steel consumption outlook
The region’s growth prospects are being weighed down by several factors. On the external front, Latin America faces an uncertain environment characterized by restrictive financial conditions, with the potential for higher interest rates in the US with Donald Trump in White House. This, combined with escalating geopolitical tensions and the intensification of extreme weather events, poses a significant risk to economic stability. Additionally, internal risks, such as the possibility of renewed inflationary pressures, could prompt restrictive monetary policies, further dampening consumption and investment, particularly in key sectors like construction and manufacturing, which are major consumers of steel.
The steel industry in Latin America is expected to experience moderate growth in consumption, largely driven by sectors such as infrastructure and automotive. However, this increased demand has largely been met through imports, particularly from China. The growing reliance on foreign steel is a reflection of a broader trend of economic commoditization in the region, where local production struggles to keep pace with cheaper, lower-quality imports. This phenomenon not only threatens high-quality jobs in steel-producing industries but also puts pressure on value-added sectors that rely on locally produced steel for their operations.
Impact of unfair Chinese competition
China’s dominance in the global steel market is one of the most significant challenges facing Latin America’s steel industry. Chinese steel exports, often sold at artificially low prices due to heavy government subsidies, have created an uneven playing field for Latin American producers. The region’s steel market has become increasingly flooded with low-cost Chinese imports, undermining local producers who cannot compete with the artificially low prices. As a result, Latin American steel industries are forced to contend with unfair competition, leading to a loss of market share, reduced investment in local production, and potential job losses.
In 2025, the situation is expected to intensify as China seeks to offload excess steel production to international markets. The increased volume of cheap Chinese steel could further undermine local industries, especially as financial constraints make it difficult for many Latin American countries to impose trade barriers such as tariffs. This growing pressure could exacerbate the region’s dependence on imported steel, further eroding local production capabilities and threatening the region’s economic autonomy in this critical sector.
Strategies to mitigate the impact of Chinese competition
To counteract the adverse effects of unfair Chinese competition, Latin American countries will need to implement assertive trade defense measures. This includes strengthening antidumping regulations and pursuing trade agreements that protect local industries from predatory pricing practices. Moreover, Latin American countries must leverage their competitive position, focusing on the high-quality steel market, where they can offer products that meet stricter environmental and quality standards compared to Chinese imports.
The region’s steel industry should also invest in innovation and sustainability. By adopting green technologies and focusing on the production of low-carbon steel, Latin American producers can differentiate themselves in a global market that is increasingly prioritizing carbon-neutral and sustainable production methods taking advantage of the availability of natural resources in the region. This will not only help Latin America remain competitive but also contribute to global efforts to reduce the environmental impact of steel production.