Will upward movement continue in Turkish import scrap market?

After the sharp declines seen in the Turkish import scrap market at the beginning of November, some price decreases have been seen in the transactions concluded in the last two days.
 
Yesterday, November 25, an ex-St. Petersburg deal to Turkey for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap was concluded at $304/mt CFR, increasing by $1-2/mt compared to the price levels seen two weeks earlier. Additionally, an ex-Baltic deal to Turkey for A3 and bonus grade scrap was concluded at the average price level of $306.5/mt CFR, increasing by about $3-4/mt in the last two weeks, while an ex-Europe deal to the same destination for HMS I/II scrap 80:20 scrap was concluded at $290/mt CFR.  
 
The main reason for the increase in scrap prices is believed to be the tightness of import scrap supply. Turkish producers want to buy scrap ahead of the cold winter weather, while the scrap flow especially at US scrap collection yards is reported to be disturbed by the cold weather and also affected by the approach of Thanksgiving and the New Year holidays, providing support for scrap suppliers' higher offers.
 
On the other hand, both local and import billet offers have maintained their attractiveness for buyers in the Turkish market. A major Turkish producer opened its billet sales at $415/mt on November 21 and consequently ex-CIS billet deals have been heard at $410/mt CFR in the current week. If scrap prices increase further, using billets for production instead of scrap will be more advantageous for Turkish producers.  Meanwhile, the declining trend of iron ore prices has continued, with iron ore prices with Fe content of 62 percent decreasing by $1/mt to $68/mt today, November 26. This situation is expected to put negative pressure on the upward movement of scrap prices.