Similar to last week, scrap market sources throughout the US believe that prices are likely to trend at sideways to slightly up during next month’s buy cycle, with shredded and P&S scrap holding level, and HMS ticking up slightly.
Although scrap inflows have not been great, pending maintenance outages (coupled with smaller mill scrap buys) are expected to keep the market at “steady and unexciting.”
“I’m in the sideways camp at this point,” said one source. “I think supply will be more than enough to cover demand for September, particularly with the [steel mill] outages coming up in September and October. Although export prices have increased throughout August, domestic is still a better option for dealers.”
A source in the Northeast said he’s also pegging September at sideways, although he thinks that up $10/gt could happen in some parts of the country.
Two sources in the Midwest also said they believe that HMS will settle at $20/gt above August settled levels.
“Primes are likely to stay sideways but it is really an interesting grade,” another added, noting that one mill’s recent pig iron purchase, which took place at approximately $435/mt CFR New Orleans, showed a lot more strength than he would have guessed.
A final source agreed that HMS prices are most likely to increase slightly going into September, with shred and P&S holding flat.
The September buy cycle is not expected to start until after Labor Day.