US scrap market braces for anticipated downfall in July

Thursday, 30 June 2022 19:38:25 (GMT+3)   |   San Diego
       

As of late last week, scrap market sources throughout the US became increasingly pessimistic regarding where July prices might land. While some speculated that cuts and shred could come down by $20-$40/gt, others thought that down $50-$60/gt was more likely. 

Predictions for prime grade scrap also varied, with some thinking that prices would soften by $50/gt, and others citing a belief that down $75-$100/gt was more likely.

This week, multiple sources close to SteelOrbis have begun to cite chatter out of Chicago indicating that David Joseph will try to take HMS, P&S, and shredded scrap down by $50/gt, and busheling scrap down by $100/gt+.

“I wouldn’t be at all surprised if primes were down by more than $100/gt next month,” a source said, adding that down $125-$150/gt may be likely. “It’s going to be a bloodbath.”

Other sources agree the market is on the verge of a sharp downturn due to still-falling finished steel prices, short lead times, the fact that the spread between busheling and shredded scrap is still far above historical norms, and still-softening dock prices.

(As of earlier this month, the spread between busheling and shredded scrap spanned between $150-$200/gt, depending on the region.)

“Pig iron is down and [cargo prices into Turkey] are still way off from where they were a month ago. Everything is coming down. All of it,” a source said. “But what I do think we’re going to see, is that the market is going to correct more than it should, and after that, we’ll see some sort of bounce. Whether that happen in August, or if it happens in September, is the great unknown.”

The July scrap trade is expected to start early next week, after the July 4 holiday.


Similar articles

Mexican domestic scrap prices

28 Mar | Scrap & Raw Materials

Carbon and stainless scrap prices in Taiwanese domestic market - week 13, 2024

28 Mar | Scrap & Raw Materials

Turkey’s deep sea scrap prices stabilize at $385-390/mt CFR

28 Mar | Scrap & Raw Materials

CISA: Coking coal purchase cost in China down 9.86% in Jan-Feb

28 Mar | Steel News

US scrap market still expecting sideways pricing in April

27 Mar | Scrap & Raw Materials

Ex-US deep sea scrap prices to Turkey increase, ex-EU prices relatively stable

27 Mar | Scrap & Raw Materials

Downtrend reverses in Pakistan’s import scrap segment

27 Mar | Scrap & Raw Materials

Average local Chinese scrap prices rise amid tight supply after previous decreases

27 Mar | Scrap & Raw Materials

Import scrap prices in India move up, but low bids prevent deals

27 Mar | Scrap & Raw Materials

Baltic countries and Czech Republic seek EU ban on ex-Russia scrap imports

27 Mar | Steel News