US export scrap prices to Turkey may be on a firming trend, but East coast export yard sources say they’re not convinced that current price points will last. Multiple ex-US cargos of HMS I/II 80:20 scrap have been booked this week between $198-$200.75/mt CFR; this reflects a $3-$5.75/mt increase over prices reported one week prior. Sources close to SteelOrbis say they will continue to be aggressive in their efforts to book cargos with Turkish producers, as they feel that once Turkish mills’ meet their needs for scrap supply, prices will once again begin to soften; cheaply-priced Chinese billet is also still concerning, they said, which is also contributing to a widespread belief that the firming price levels will be temporary.
Firmed export prices have also enabled export yards to raise the prices they pay to scrap collectors, which has helped increase scrap inflow. Inflow has been off by as much as 40-60 percent, sources have confirmed, and one SteelOrbis source who recently visited an export scrap storage facility at an East Coast port said that warehouse was “still mostly empty a full week after the last export shipment to Turkey, which is a testament to how bad inflow has been. Once export prices start to come down again, which we all expect will happen, getting collectors to sell scrap into the yards at a lower price is going to be a problem due to the winter weather.”