Some mills in the US Midwest announced changes to ferrous scrap prices to kick off the May trading cycle, with a $20/gt increase on prime grades and no change for obsolete grades. Yet it is still a developing situation and other mills are rumored to be announcing a sideways trend across the board very soon. Even at the time of publication, there were reports of prominent mills in the Midwest purchasing obsoletes sideways, while large sellers were offering them #1 busheling at a price unchanged from the April settled price. Mills in the Southeast were reportedly seeing these offers for #1 busheling as well.
Nevertheless, it all points to prime grades moving up $20/gt in May or staying unchanged.
Sellers point to demand from mills that is just too potent to ignore, while buyers have been weighing their options in the past few days as they try to exert downward pressure on the market. Even on Wednesday, some mills believe that shredded and cut grade prices could come off from the April settled.
Negotiations are ongoing, and even several of the mills’ official positions and announcements are undetermined at this time.
A strong sideways trend for May has been projected for several weeks now as several factors pointed in a positive direction. Moreover, steel production indicators have hit a high for 2026 this week. According to the American Iron and Steel Institute, crude steel production in the US reached 1.85 mn nt (1.67 mn mt) across all regions, the highest in the year, while the installed capacity utilization rate surpassed the 80pc threshold this year and settled at 80.4pc during the week of May 2. Sellers point out that these are especially good numbers, given the number of maintenance shutdowns taking place.
Some buyers were inquiring on Wednesday morning for the latest moves in the US pig iron market. Basic pig iron (BPI) to the US rose $20/mt in both April and March, yet this week the price has remained unchanged from last week at $510-515/mt CFR NOLA. The export market has seen export prices from the US East Coast (USEC) and US West Coast (USWC) increase in the past couple of weeks, yet some recent developments point to a possible softening in those markets. Turkish finished prices for merchant bar, wire rod, and rebar have been stalling due to sluggish demand and a depreciating Turkish Lira.
Apart from that, oil prices dropped on Wednesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil falling $7.2 per barrel to $95 per barrel after US President Donald Trump said the US-Israel-Iran war was close to being over. Nevertheless, Iranian officials quickly refuted such a claim and said that US demands were more like a “wish list”.
Higher oil and freight costs have been driving up the USEC and USWC export markets to some extent; it remains to be seen whether recent developments will slow the pace of increases.
