Following the latest import deals to China, the outlook for the future price trend in the global coking coal market appears mixed. Specifically, while ex-Australia coking coal prices have continued to fall since the second half of March, Chinese customers have unexpectedly accepted quite high price levels in their latest trades, in particular, for ex-US and ex-Russia coking coal. The reason for that, according to sources, may be depleted stocks in China and the recent rises in export sales of steel. However, some market players remain skeptical that the trend will last long. “The future is not looking very good, and prices may start to fall in May. Everywhere else in the world, demand seems to be bad,” a major Chinese trader stated.
Meanwhile, a 135,000 mt cargo for ex-US hard coking coal Buchanan has been booked at $475/mt CFR China. For quite a long time, buying interest in ex-US coking coal from China was absent. Ex-Russia hard coking coal offers to China have been heard mostly at the same levels as before, at $320/mt CFR, while ex-Russia material of higher quality was offered at $370/mt CFR China. "I heard an ex-Russia cargo of coking coal K10 sold to China at $365/mt CFR China," a Singapore-based trader told.
One way or another, the developments mentioned above have encouraged traders to increase their bids for ex-Australia premium hard coking coal. In particular, today, April 7, the trader has been seeking to book 75,000 mt of ex-Australia coking coal, with laycan in May, at $395/mt FOB, but failed to get any feedback from suppliers. As SteelOrbis reported yesterday, April 6, a tender for 70,000 mt of ex-Australia low-volatility Peak Downs coking coal, for 5-14 May laycan was at $383/mt FOB Hay Point. “A reversal of trend is not a surprise to me. The market can pay this level. We were at $670/mt levels three weeks back,” a major trader commented.