Turkey’s import scrap market has been characterized by optimism this week and two new ex-Baltic bookings disclosed to the market late on October 7 have provided support for the positive market sentiments.
SteelOrbis has learned that an ex-Finland deal has been signed by an Izmir-based producer for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $362/mt CFR, with shredded and bonus grades at $382/mt CFR, for December shipment. Another ex-Finland deal has been closed by a Marmara-based producer for HMS I/II 80:20 scrap at $362/mt CFR, with the deal reported to have been done on November 6. This price for the benchmark HMS I/II 80:20 scrap is $1.5/mt higher than SteelOrbis’ previous estimations for this grade following recent ex-EU deals. As a result, SteelOrbis’ ex-US scrap reference price has increased to $365-366/mt CFR, despite the lack of any deals from the US.
Despite the current optimism, no market players expect deep sea scrap prices to move up sharply in the coming period. Due to the increasingly cold weather conditions in Turkey and in the scrap supplying regions, neither the pace of construction activities nor the pace of scrap collection is expected to accelerate. Turkish mills are expected to buy at least 20 deep sea cargoes for December shipment, while some market sources believe the total reached by the end of November may be higher, while others think Turkey will reduce its purchased volumes towards the end of 2024. “Since December is a short month, we may see a quick round of bookings next week,” a source at a Turkish mill commented. A major ex-US scrap supplier pointed to the lower scrap availability in all supplier regions, commenting, “The sales done at around $355/mt CFR Turkey were to cut down the high inventory levels of the suppliers. Now we are all starting a new round of sales with small volumes on hand and scrap flow is still on the low side. No one can cut prices while they are collecting at higher prices.” The same supplier expects the ex-US scrap price will remain above $370/mt CFR in the next deal, while a source at a major Turkish mill said that the workable levels for ex-US scrap are rather at around $365/mt CFR. A European scrap supplier said today, November 8, that if Turkish mills remain silent, the question will be how long suppliers can wait before panicking, adding, “We may see another fall even, who knows.” While both parties, sellers and buyers, agree that deep sea scrap prices are tending to move up, they do not foresee any great jump in prices. Ex-EU and ex-UK HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices are mostly expected to move up to $365/mt CFR, while ex-US scrap prices are expected to move towards $370/mt CFR. While both parties, sellers and buyers, agree that deep sea scrap prices are tending to move up, they do not foresee any great jump in prices. Ex-EU and ex-UK HMS I/II 80:20 scrap prices are mostly expected to move up to $365/mt CFR, while ex-US scrap prices are expected to move towards $370/mt CFR.
Meanwhile, Turkey’s ex-Romania scrap booking prices are standing at $345/mt CFR, $2.5/mt higher than the previous estimations. SteelOrbis hears that Italian suppliers do not find the current levels attractive and are in no rush to sell to Turkey, aiming for $360/mt CFR. The workable levels for Greek HMS I/II 80:20 scrap are at around $352/mt CFR. However, Turkish mills state that their focus is on deep sea cargoes instead of short sea scrap due to financial advantages and concerns over the purity of material.
